I think this post says it all , from another board
*****&&&&, I appreciate your work but I think as the base of this disease grows, it won't matter much if the percent is smaller because you will have a larger base. I also think since this is a respiratory illness that has been found in over 20 countries now, it is only a matter of time till the shit hits the fan in some other countries.
Imagine what this disease could do on the continent of Africa if it gets a hold there. Many countries would have no way of treating the ill, containing it or even educating the populace on how to prevent the transmission of disease.
This is why I feel that math in a case like this can be idiotic. Just looking at your own numbers with 45,200 case and 8200 severe that means 18% of the cases are severe. There is a reason China is building hospitals. I also think it is inevitable that this disease is going to rampage across China.
A lot hinges on the definition of severe, does it require an ICU or just hospitalization. If this thing is truly airborne it would require a reverse Isolation bed and there are not many of these beds in any hospital. Otherwise the disease will infect more people in the hospitals. And people not sick with the virus will catch it, which in fact the medical staffers have been getting sick, some dying.
It appears to me that the cat is out of the bag on this one. This is an epidemic in China that is bound to become a pandemic. If not this season than next. As your numbers get larger and more people die it becomes inevitable that some people panic and even in an Iron Fisted China people will try to leave by any means and the virus will gain a second head of steam.
The thing I have trouble understanding is why Wynn Casino stock has recovered to the degree the stock has. I had to cover my short on that one, but I am looking to reshort it. I think Hong Kong is a sitting duck.
I really think that China has done an impressive job of containing this virus. I mean a respiratory illness is extremely hard to contain and yet the rest of the world so far has been spared the China experience.
*****&&&&, I appreciate your work but I think as the base of this disease grows, it won't matter much if the percent is smaller because you will have a larger base. I also think since this is a respiratory illness that has been found in over 20 countries now, it is only a matter of time till the shit hits the fan in some other countries.
Imagine what this disease could do on the continent of Africa if it gets a hold there. Many countries would have no way of treating the ill, containing it or even educating the populace on how to prevent the transmission of disease.
This is why I feel that math in a case like this can be idiotic. Just looking at your own numbers with 45,200 case and 8200 severe that means 18% of the cases are severe. There is a reason China is building hospitals. I also think it is inevitable that this disease is going to rampage across China.
A lot hinges on the definition of severe, does it require an ICU or just hospitalization. If this thing is truly airborne it would require a reverse Isolation bed and there are not many of these beds in any hospital. Otherwise the disease will infect more people in the hospitals. And people not sick with the virus will catch it, which in fact the medical staffers have been getting sick, some dying.
It appears to me that the cat is out of the bag on this one. This is an epidemic in China that is bound to become a pandemic. If not this season than next. As your numbers get larger and more people die it becomes inevitable that some people panic and even in an Iron Fisted China people will try to leave by any means and the virus will gain a second head of steam.
The thing I have trouble understanding is why Wynn Casino stock has recovered to the degree the stock has. I had to cover my short on that one, but I am looking to reshort it. I think Hong Kong is a sitting duck.
I really think that China has done an impressive job of containing this virus. I mean a respiratory illness is extremely hard to contain and yet the rest of the world so far has been spared the China experience.
