Just a little bit of stock analysis as regards the

Just a little bit of stock analysis as regards the daily shorting mechanics. No spin, just facts.

Some continue to spread deceit about the FINRA daily short metrics, suggesting that it's just MM noise surrounding legged-trades and settlement (T+3). Well, we can test that theory, can't we?

Expectations : If we account for the level of shorting as compared to total volume over the T+3 settlement window then we can conclude that since we see virtually zero bi-weekly short interest in the stock, IF all the short transactions are getting covered within three days then mathematically there cannot be sessions within that three day window wherein more than 50% of the total volume were short sales (cumulatively, on average and in aggregate, of course). Well, let's see...

Monday - 49% -  20130204|RFMK|19005129|0|39108912|O  :  ~19M shorts need cover

Tuesday - 56% - 20130205|RFMK|82322673|0|147073654|O  :  ~82M new shorts need cover

Wednesday - 33% - 20130206|RFMK|9838051|0|29974021|O  : ~50M old + ~10M new shorts need cover = ~60M shorts still left to cover

As we can see, it's very tight, indeed. If we assume that nearly 100% of all the daily volume that is NOT short sales consists of covering, then we still see that because the level of new shorts that come into existence in most average trading days are so great, it means that typically not enough shorts are getting covered in T+3 settlement. Old shorts could be getting covered while new ones are being created, but just have a look at ALL of the FINRA data and do some quick calculations and you will see that it just does not work out. Something has to give and so the conclusion is that short positions are accumulating in RFMK. If they are not showing up on the biweekly report then it stands to reason that these are likely naked shorts not reported by the firm that is shorting. The DTC chill only allows T4T, so each trade would have to be for settled cash for settled shares, that is true, but remember, that is only for DTC-affiliated brokerages. There is a host of foreign and non-DTC (self clearing) brokerages out there which can naked short any PK stock ad infinitum and they can just let those pile up and do nothing about it. We have seen it happen massively in other stocks and I would not be surprised if it is happening in RFMK. Even with the numbers we have for the past few weeks leading up to todays action, it stands to reason, we can only make two assumptions. Either a greater portion of the total volume that is not getting shorted is indeed regular average retail traders trading the stock but then that would mean all the shorts getting created daily are not getting covered and not getting reported, OR, the shorts are getting covered properly and so there is nothing to report BUT that would mean that basically ALL of the volume we see on any given day is just a big phony mess of MMs bots playing with the stock like a ragdoll. Tens, sometimes hundreds of millions of shares getting flip flopped around but all under the same roof; its perhaps virtual volume to create the illusion of many market participants trading in the stock. When it pulls back the stock experts get on ranting and claiming all sorts of reasons and correlations (dilution, insiders dumping, etc) as to why it is down. When it is rising, all the pumps get on ranting about how there must be news or someone must know something. Its all rather amusing IMO. The data is all there for everyone to see. The long and the short of it is that when an illiquid, volatile, low volume sub penny stock continues to see, on average about a HALF of its total volume getting shorted every other day, or thereabouts, then we can pretty much safely conclude that none of the "action" is worth our time and effort discussing or analyzing.

You must unlearn what you have learned. The dark side clouds everything.

GLTA

$RFMK