Why is the SP down ??
I think there are three main issues:
Credibility: The fact of the BLA ready to be submitted (and revenues coming few months afterwards) had been factored into the price. Once again, for reasons that still are not completely clear to me there is another delay. OK, FDA demanded more data and his can be positive at the end of the day. However, this fact must have been known few weeks back and, as recently as two weeks ago Nader said that end of month was still the estimated date of submission. So, this has a double effect: incredulity at the sudden change of things and the empty feeling of not quite understand why. Nader should had explained this better at the ICC. I do appreciate things change, but also, I know that this can be satisfactorily explained to all in a conference call environment.
In this subject I do agree that, at the end, this could end up being positive as the “mantle” will cover a potential Mono application.
Financing: The SP is (obviously) influenced by the potential of capital raises. We long-term holders have factored this in our expectations. But, a large segment of investors (short term, swingers), do not want to hear of further dilution or further raises. We all were expecting a financial deal (“talking” to 18 institutions for this after the San Francisco conference). The specter of these possibly coming back scared many.
The CFO did not do a good job addressing this and setting solid expectations with regards to the financial situation seeding more doubts than answering questions.
Besides this, the perception of NP and the BOD sticking their hands in the cookie jar while the company and some long-term-investors are still struggling financially did not fall well (not with me anyway). The bonus should had been granted when the stock price reaches so and so. Or when the sales reach this and that, or when the commercialization deal with x and Y is signed. I guess what I am saying is that our directors should take a cookie from the jar when this will be shared to us investors. Some can argue that BTD is just that, and maybe this is the case, but again, the timing and the landmarks where not well orchestrated (not to mention the number of cookies that are being taken
) leaving the taste, to some of us, of being taken advantage of.
Déjà vu mentality: We have grown accustomed to spectacular news. Believe me, I have been involved in companies where a mere rumor of something cooking sends the price up several 10s percent (and more). Here, a potential mega-deal with a large pharma in China sends the stock down the next day !!! Also, there were other very good news (patient #4, more patients injected) in the conference. I guess, the reaction is stronger when the pockets are touched than when the expectations are raised.
The price will go much higher again, and, eventually we will get closer to up-listing and then up-list, however, there have been some unforced errors in the way expectations have been communicated and managed resulting in, yet another substantial drop in the midst of excellent news
I think there are three main issues:
Credibility: The fact of the BLA ready to be submitted (and revenues coming few months afterwards) had been factored into the price. Once again, for reasons that still are not completely clear to me there is another delay. OK, FDA demanded more data and his can be positive at the end of the day. However, this fact must have been known few weeks back and, as recently as two weeks ago Nader said that end of month was still the estimated date of submission. So, this has a double effect: incredulity at the sudden change of things and the empty feeling of not quite understand why. Nader should had explained this better at the ICC. I do appreciate things change, but also, I know that this can be satisfactorily explained to all in a conference call environment.
In this subject I do agree that, at the end, this could end up being positive as the “mantle” will cover a potential Mono application.
Financing: The SP is (obviously) influenced by the potential of capital raises. We long-term holders have factored this in our expectations. But, a large segment of investors (short term, swingers), do not want to hear of further dilution or further raises. We all were expecting a financial deal (“talking” to 18 institutions for this after the San Francisco conference). The specter of these possibly coming back scared many.
The CFO did not do a good job addressing this and setting solid expectations with regards to the financial situation seeding more doubts than answering questions.
Besides this, the perception of NP and the BOD sticking their hands in the cookie jar while the company and some long-term-investors are still struggling financially did not fall well (not with me anyway). The bonus should had been granted when the stock price reaches so and so. Or when the sales reach this and that, or when the commercialization deal with x and Y is signed. I guess what I am saying is that our directors should take a cookie from the jar when this will be shared to us investors. Some can argue that BTD is just that, and maybe this is the case, but again, the timing and the landmarks where not well orchestrated (not to mention the number of cookies that are being taken
) leaving the taste, to some of us, of being taken advantage of. Déjà vu mentality: We have grown accustomed to spectacular news. Believe me, I have been involved in companies where a mere rumor of something cooking sends the price up several 10s percent (and more). Here, a potential mega-deal with a large pharma in China sends the stock down the next day !!! Also, there were other very good news (patient #4, more patients injected) in the conference. I guess, the reaction is stronger when the pockets are touched than when the expectations are raised.
The price will go much higher again, and, eventually we will get closer to up-listing and then up-list, however, there have been some unforced errors in the way expectations have been communicated and managed resulting in, yet another substantial drop in the midst of excellent news
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