Some toughts after the CC
Post# of 155487
(Total Views: 287)
Posted On: 12/18/2019 1:07:18 PM
I wanted to share my thoughts sometime after the CC as time itself provides some clearer answers.
We desperately needed a deal and we got one. The best one ? No, I am sure there are better and worse alternatives; but we got what we could. I don’t think CYDY is or was in a condition to make demands. We needed help and one gets it from whomever.
We have a contract that, theoretically will protect us from miss-behavior form Vyera (if any). But the important point here is that we need to keep on going … and this allows us to do just that.
If one does not like it there is no good reason to go bananas (as some have done), either get out (today would be a good day to do so), or appreciate that, what was negotiated could be just a (very) little piece of the pie, potentially a large one. This is JUST HIV for USA for Pete’s sake. This deal will give credibility to CDY in the face of potential international partners, if not now, when FDA says that we have a drug and we start selling Lero.
We just survived to fight another day. And this will come.
Without extending too much and going to the details there is not much to say as the appendix will show us “the devil”. However, 50% of “gross profit margin” is not a bad deal at all (maybe a larger company would had negotiated for 15%-20%), some of you say that there are no details, true. Let’s wait for them before jumping up and down. If done in good faith the end result will be close to 50% of what is left once COGS is taken out (for both parties). The lawyers I am sure have thought about this one and nobody will be taking advantage of the other.
Which bring us to sales, what I see is a “hungry” company with loses in the last couple of years. They will be happy to receive something they can actually sell and start profiting (their fate is tied to ours). Hopefully they will be able to ramp-up their sales team rapidly need will be.
The critical point here is PRICING. This is very complicated in light of potential Oncology (and Mono) implications. I wouldn’t’ like to be in the pants of those that have to make a decision that will have implications in the order of 100’s of millions. Too high of a price, less sales and lower potential profit. Too low, less profit. The thing is I don’t believe neither company currently has enough data to make a reasonable good decision. So it will be what it will be. I only hope CYDY has a big saying in this.
We have become so used to extraordinary news that MS didn’t even register in the radar. Does anybody remember Dr. Dennis Berger carefully explaining to a very anxious crowd his progress in MS and the fact that a P2 protocol (similar to Biogen’s Tysabri) is ready? I don’t want to insult anybody’s intelligence by saying this is BIG news … but, what do we do?? Go bananas and start crying foul foul !!!.
We got a deal, maybe with the Devil, but as my dad used to tell me: “one can make deals with the devil provided one knows is the Devil”. This is for a small portion of (hopefully) a very large cake, so, let’s be grateful we can continue walking to find our pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.
BTW: 87 Million (milestones) for a company of a MC of 140 Million should mean $0.6 share in improved valuation so “normally” we should be hovering close to $1. Normally I said
Everybody have a great Holiday Season and a very Happy Christmas !!!
We desperately needed a deal and we got one. The best one ? No, I am sure there are better and worse alternatives; but we got what we could. I don’t think CYDY is or was in a condition to make demands. We needed help and one gets it from whomever.
We have a contract that, theoretically will protect us from miss-behavior form Vyera (if any). But the important point here is that we need to keep on going … and this allows us to do just that.
If one does not like it there is no good reason to go bananas (as some have done), either get out (today would be a good day to do so), or appreciate that, what was negotiated could be just a (very) little piece of the pie, potentially a large one. This is JUST HIV for USA for Pete’s sake. This deal will give credibility to CDY in the face of potential international partners, if not now, when FDA says that we have a drug and we start selling Lero.
We just survived to fight another day. And this will come.
Without extending too much and going to the details there is not much to say as the appendix will show us “the devil”. However, 50% of “gross profit margin” is not a bad deal at all (maybe a larger company would had negotiated for 15%-20%), some of you say that there are no details, true. Let’s wait for them before jumping up and down. If done in good faith the end result will be close to 50% of what is left once COGS is taken out (for both parties). The lawyers I am sure have thought about this one and nobody will be taking advantage of the other.
Which bring us to sales, what I see is a “hungry” company with loses in the last couple of years. They will be happy to receive something they can actually sell and start profiting (their fate is tied to ours). Hopefully they will be able to ramp-up their sales team rapidly need will be.
The critical point here is PRICING. This is very complicated in light of potential Oncology (and Mono) implications. I wouldn’t’ like to be in the pants of those that have to make a decision that will have implications in the order of 100’s of millions. Too high of a price, less sales and lower potential profit. Too low, less profit. The thing is I don’t believe neither company currently has enough data to make a reasonable good decision. So it will be what it will be. I only hope CYDY has a big saying in this.
We have become so used to extraordinary news that MS didn’t even register in the radar. Does anybody remember Dr. Dennis Berger carefully explaining to a very anxious crowd his progress in MS and the fact that a P2 protocol (similar to Biogen’s Tysabri) is ready? I don’t want to insult anybody’s intelligence by saying this is BIG news … but, what do we do?? Go bananas and start crying foul foul !!!.
We got a deal, maybe with the Devil, but as my dad used to tell me: “one can make deals with the devil provided one knows is the Devil”. This is for a small portion of (hopefully) a very large cake, so, let’s be grateful we can continue walking to find our pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.
BTW: 87 Million (milestones) for a company of a MC of 140 Million should mean $0.6 share in improved valuation so “normally” we should be hovering close to $1. Normally I said
Everybody have a great Holiday Season and a very Happy Christmas !!!
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