Contracted Out AAR Business Sector Update. For
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Posted On: 12/15/2019 7:40:57 PM
Contracted Out AAR Business Sector Update.
For those who haven't read all my previous "professional opinion" briefs, whilst the USAF tankers use primarily the "flying boom" technique, a small number currently have to be employed in the "probe and drogue" role also - using either adapters on the flying boom or under wing trailing drogue pods - to refuel USN and USMC aircraft as well as those of NATO partners such as the RAF and any air arm using the F-35B.
As stated previously, anything that can be done to increase the USN's AAR capacity through contracting out will reduce the number of USAF tankers that need to be diverted on USN / USMC tasks.
In addition, now that the USAF appears to be going ahead with the next stage in part contracting out AAR, there may be a niche element within that for "probe-and-drogue" tankers such as the $TMPS Tristars under USAF contracts.
Further to my previous briefs on this matter, there have been a number of recent developments regarding the progress of USAF plans:
Defense News Article - December 13, 2019.
"The US Air Force needs more tankers. Does the defense industry have the answer?"
Extracts:
On Dec. 17, Air Mobility Command will hold an industry day at Scott Air Force Base, Illinois, in the hopes of better understanding how it can contract for commercial air refueling services to supplement tanking missions performed by the Air Force’s KC-135s, KC-10s and KC-46s.
“We do think that this is an opportunity that needs to be pursued,” Lt. Gen. Jon Thomas, the command’s deputy chief, said during an exclusive interview with Defense News on Dec. 10 . “If we can find a viable, clear path with industry, we should do it.”
The (US) Air Force believes there are a certain set of aerial-refueling missions conducted in a uncontested environment that could provide a predictable stream of business,
"Through the industry day, the service is hoping to better understand how companies might be able to fulfill those requirements.
“There are several providers … that would propose that they have their own tanker that’s already flying and doing great work for other air forces,” he said.
“You can never have enough tanking capability."
https://www.defensenews.com/air/2019/12/13/th...he-answer/
The main thrust of the article above is concentrated on the possibility of Airbus and Lockheed Martin pitching to provide new build A330 Multi-Role Tanker Transport (MRTT) on a contract basis. However, they would take some time (years) to build and in the meantime the smaller players $TMPS and Omega - who currently only have "probe-and-drogue" tankers - could expand by buying up the small lots of ex-military "flying boom" tankers that major air forces are divesting in favor of the A330 MRTT. Omega is already doing this (see below)
More on the Airbus / Lockheed Martin possibility here:
https://www.defensenews.com/air/2018/12/05/lo...e-tankers/
https://news.lockheedmartin.com/2019-06-20-Lo...s-Air-Show
Dual capable "flying boom" / "probe-and-drogue" USAF KC-135 - from 100 ARW RAF Mildenhall UK - refueling RAF F-35Bs on non-contested training missions:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YyuJLHaXe6o
Remember Tristar Air UK Ltd was formed in August 2019 and we don't yet know the reason.
Omega has just bought 2 ex-Royal Netherlands Air Force KDC-10 as their first "flying boom" tankers:
http://www.omegaairrefueling.com/featured-new...rce-kdc-10
My view remains the same - no company owning either "probe-and-drogue" or "flying boom" tankers should have a problem getting contracts with US DoD for years to come as the USAF tanker re-capitalization program will continue to be a problem for the next 20 to 30 years - as it has been for the last 12 years ever since the program for the contest winner - A330 MRTT at KC-45A - was ditched for political reasons due to a Boeing protest and US vested interest.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EADS/Northrop_Grumman_KC-45
How ironic it will be if the order for Boeing KC-46A is cut back in favor of contracted out A330 MRTT which the USAF could have had already several years ago !
For those who haven't read all my previous "professional opinion" briefs, whilst the USAF tankers use primarily the "flying boom" technique, a small number currently have to be employed in the "probe and drogue" role also - using either adapters on the flying boom or under wing trailing drogue pods - to refuel USN and USMC aircraft as well as those of NATO partners such as the RAF and any air arm using the F-35B.
As stated previously, anything that can be done to increase the USN's AAR capacity through contracting out will reduce the number of USAF tankers that need to be diverted on USN / USMC tasks.
In addition, now that the USAF appears to be going ahead with the next stage in part contracting out AAR, there may be a niche element within that for "probe-and-drogue" tankers such as the $TMPS Tristars under USAF contracts.
Further to my previous briefs on this matter, there have been a number of recent developments regarding the progress of USAF plans:
Defense News Article - December 13, 2019.
"The US Air Force needs more tankers. Does the defense industry have the answer?"
Extracts:
On Dec. 17, Air Mobility Command will hold an industry day at Scott Air Force Base, Illinois, in the hopes of better understanding how it can contract for commercial air refueling services to supplement tanking missions performed by the Air Force’s KC-135s, KC-10s and KC-46s.
“We do think that this is an opportunity that needs to be pursued,” Lt. Gen. Jon Thomas, the command’s deputy chief, said during an exclusive interview with Defense News on Dec. 10 . “If we can find a viable, clear path with industry, we should do it.”
The (US) Air Force believes there are a certain set of aerial-refueling missions conducted in a uncontested environment that could provide a predictable stream of business,
"Through the industry day, the service is hoping to better understand how companies might be able to fulfill those requirements.
“There are several providers … that would propose that they have their own tanker that’s already flying and doing great work for other air forces,” he said.
“You can never have enough tanking capability."
https://www.defensenews.com/air/2019/12/13/th...he-answer/
The main thrust of the article above is concentrated on the possibility of Airbus and Lockheed Martin pitching to provide new build A330 Multi-Role Tanker Transport (MRTT) on a contract basis. However, they would take some time (years) to build and in the meantime the smaller players $TMPS and Omega - who currently only have "probe-and-drogue" tankers - could expand by buying up the small lots of ex-military "flying boom" tankers that major air forces are divesting in favor of the A330 MRTT. Omega is already doing this (see below)
More on the Airbus / Lockheed Martin possibility here:
https://www.defensenews.com/air/2018/12/05/lo...e-tankers/
https://news.lockheedmartin.com/2019-06-20-Lo...s-Air-Show
Dual capable "flying boom" / "probe-and-drogue" USAF KC-135 - from 100 ARW RAF Mildenhall UK - refueling RAF F-35Bs on non-contested training missions:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YyuJLHaXe6o
Remember Tristar Air UK Ltd was formed in August 2019 and we don't yet know the reason.
Omega has just bought 2 ex-Royal Netherlands Air Force KDC-10 as their first "flying boom" tankers:
http://www.omegaairrefueling.com/featured-new...rce-kdc-10
My view remains the same - no company owning either "probe-and-drogue" or "flying boom" tankers should have a problem getting contracts with US DoD for years to come as the USAF tanker re-capitalization program will continue to be a problem for the next 20 to 30 years - as it has been for the last 12 years ever since the program for the contest winner - A330 MRTT at KC-45A - was ditched for political reasons due to a Boeing protest and US vested interest.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EADS/Northrop_Grumman_KC-45
How ironic it will be if the order for Boeing KC-46A is cut back in favor of contracted out A330 MRTT which the USAF could have had already several years ago !
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A very apposite motto for those who trade successfully in the OTC market..
All posts are my opinion - trade at your own risk.