I've been mostly reading but not posting lately for 2 reasons.... 1) I've been busy at work (and I can't be "real time" on reading/posting) and 2) I feel as though we are so in the dark on so many topics that it is not a good time to buy OR sell, and many of my thoughts would be pure (and worthless) speculation.
Here are some of my thoughts, in no particular order as they spew from my somewhat overwhelmed head. The number after each item is my perceived level of our current level of good information on the topic (0-5, 0 = lowest, 5 = highest). Please feel free to enlighten me with info that you feel proves me wrong.
1) There is no clarity on the CMF issue. We don't really know if they have been or will be penalized. We don't know if other restricted shareholders are selling or if CMF continues to sell. (1)
2) The new NGIO dividend sounds positive, and I'm happy to see SOMETHING... but we don't really have the info to judge that. We get 2:5 NGIO shares. I THINK that's great, as it adds to the shares I have received in a rather large way. However, we don't know how many total shares of NGIO there will be, and we have no way to value the company even if we did. (0)
3) The new GNBT div... it's good to see there is a plan. But we don't know who receives the dividend. I assume from the wording (or lack thereof), unless they state otherwise, that ALL shareholders will receive it. Therefore, it will simply be dilutive. (3)
4) NGIO spin - we don't have a date, and we don't know how much money it will raise ($100s of millions???). It seems to me that, with all of the pieces that are still in process, this could be at least a couple of months. (1).
5) NGIO uplist to Naz - no way to gauge this, other than for Joe to say it's going great. That doesn't resonate with me any more, frankly. (1)
6) GNBT uplist to Naz - I don't see this in our near future, given recent execution history and open items. One thing seems clear to me... Joe doesn't think this is happening soon. Joe states that the S-1 for GNBT has "always been part of the plan". That may be a true statement, but it is playing games with words (IMO). It has always been part of the plan, but it was part of the plan for AFTER uplisting. Joe stated numerous times that it was stupid to raise the money on the OTC... and yet here we are with $40MM (or more) being raised while we sit on the OTC. I'm not counting my Naz chickens until they hatch. (2)
7) S-1 $ for GNBT - when will we have it? In the coming days? Weeks? Months? What are the terms? How much will it dilute our holdings? (2)
Revenues - What divisions are currently producing revenues? How much? How long will it take for various divisions to ramp up once the S-1 $ is in the bank? Other than "$250MM in the first 12 months, low-ball #", what are the projections for sales in the various divisions? Some think this is an unimportant piece of our short-term pie. As we flounder on the OTC, I believe this is a HUGE opportunity for buying pressure... as the company is currently priced for failure. Any hint of actual business success (not further enticements to hold or future acquisition targets) will be what finally gets this stock moving (IMO). (1... moving to a 2 when we see the Q on 12/16 (barring an extension... oh, please, can we report without an extension?!).... hopefully moving to a 3.5-4 by the following Q ~3/15)
All that said, I still hold, as I believe many of you are. Of course, who would sell here, as many have stated.
On the flip side, with so much uncertainty, who would buy?
I am still bullish long-term,and look forward to the GNBT S-1 $ becoming available, the NGIO spin/uplist/trading (and $), revenue info being made available (and revenue occurring from more places), putting the dividends behind us, etc.
Here are some of my thoughts, in no particular order as they spew from my somewhat overwhelmed head. The number after each item is my perceived level of our current level of good information on the topic (0-5, 0 = lowest, 5 = highest). Please feel free to enlighten me with info that you feel proves me wrong.
1) There is no clarity on the CMF issue. We don't really know if they have been or will be penalized. We don't know if other restricted shareholders are selling or if CMF continues to sell. (1)
2) The new NGIO dividend sounds positive, and I'm happy to see SOMETHING... but we don't really have the info to judge that. We get 2:5 NGIO shares. I THINK that's great, as it adds to the shares I have received in a rather large way. However, we don't know how many total shares of NGIO there will be, and we have no way to value the company even if we did. (0)
3) The new GNBT div... it's good to see there is a plan. But we don't know who receives the dividend. I assume from the wording (or lack thereof), unless they state otherwise, that ALL shareholders will receive it. Therefore, it will simply be dilutive. (3)
4) NGIO spin - we don't have a date, and we don't know how much money it will raise ($100s of millions???). It seems to me that, with all of the pieces that are still in process, this could be at least a couple of months. (1).
5) NGIO uplist to Naz - no way to gauge this, other than for Joe to say it's going great. That doesn't resonate with me any more, frankly. (1)
6) GNBT uplist to Naz - I don't see this in our near future, given recent execution history and open items. One thing seems clear to me... Joe doesn't think this is happening soon. Joe states that the S-1 for GNBT has "always been part of the plan". That may be a true statement, but it is playing games with words (IMO). It has always been part of the plan, but it was part of the plan for AFTER uplisting. Joe stated numerous times that it was stupid to raise the money on the OTC... and yet here we are with $40MM (or more) being raised while we sit on the OTC. I'm not counting my Naz chickens until they hatch. (2)
7) S-1 $ for GNBT - when will we have it? In the coming days? Weeks? Months? What are the terms? How much will it dilute our holdings? (2)
Revenues - What divisions are currently producing revenues? How much? How long will it take for various divisions to ramp up once the S-1 $ is in the bank? Other than "$250MM in the first 12 months, low-ball #", what are the projections for sales in the various divisions? Some think this is an unimportant piece of our short-term pie. As we flounder on the OTC, I believe this is a HUGE opportunity for buying pressure... as the company is currently priced for failure. Any hint of actual business success (not further enticements to hold or future acquisition targets) will be what finally gets this stock moving (IMO). (1... moving to a 2 when we see the Q on 12/16 (barring an extension... oh, please, can we report without an extension?!).... hopefully moving to a 3.5-4 by the following Q ~3/15) All that said, I still hold, as I believe many of you are. Of course, who would sell here, as many have stated.
On the flip side, with so much uncertainty, who would buy?
I am still bullish long-term,and look forward to the GNBT S-1 $ becoming available, the NGIO spin/uplist/trading (and $), revenue info being made available (and revenue occurring from more places), putting the dividends behind us, etc.
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