Goodwin: Impeachment trial is the ace up President

Quote:

Here’s my slam-dunk choice for the Quote of the Year: “I want a trial.”

The President of the United States said that Friday morning, and his title alone would be reason enough to make it the most significant thing said in 2019. But there’s much more to it because Donald Trump’s demand highlights the historically unique set of circumstances he and the nation face in 2020.

As of now, the new year will feature an impeachment trial in the Senate followed by the presidential election. If Trump survives Democrats’ effort to remove him, he would be the first impeached president to face voters again.

Andrew Johnson, impeached in 1868, was later denied his party’s nomination for a second term. Bill Clinton won his second term before he was impeached.

While there’s some skepticism that Trump really wants to put everything on the line over allegations involving his dealings with Ukraine, I’m convinced he’s ­serious.

I’m also convinced he’s crazy like a fox. Given the flimsy allegations and the unfair, one-party nature of the House process, beating impeachment in the Senate seems close to a sure thing. And doing so would dramatically boost Trump’s chances of getting four more years.

Indeed, it’s probable that as impeachment goes, so goes the election.

Of course, there’s no question Trump would much prefer the House not brand him with the “I” word, but that’s a pipe dream.

If Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Rep. Adam Schiff can’t muster 218 votes on a set of articles after five long days of public testimony and hyperbolic assertions that the president is an existential threat to the world, Trump will claim he’s been exonerated. Who could blame him?

Pelosi can’t let that happen, having picked her poison by embracing the whistleblower complaint before she saw the transcript of Trump’s call with the president of Ukraine. Turning back now is not an option, so she’ll beg, bribe and twist the arms of any reluctant Dems to get to 218.

That vote will probably come in December, with a Senate trial starting in January.

There, the president will enjoy all the advantages Schiff denied him in the House’s kangaroo court. Most important, Trump starts with 53 GOP senators in the jury, and with a super-majority of 67 votes required for conviction, Dems need to flip 20 of them. That assumes they can hold all Democrats, which is not certain.

In addition to Trump having home-field advantage, a Senate trial, presided over by Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts, would be expected to follow federal rules on evidence and procedures.
see also
Trump will 'compel' Adam Schiff to testify in impeachment trial

One clear change from the House: no hearsay testimony. Thus, much of what passed for evidence there — and spurred the most sensational headlines — would not be permitted in the ­Senate.

For another, Trump’s lawyers would have wide latitude in a witness list and would use it to turn the tables on Democrats, the resistance and the Bidens. Trump likes nothing more than being on offense, and his aim would be to put his accusers on trial.

Already the president has named three people he wants grilled, starting with Hunter Biden and his lucrative gig on the board of Burisma, a corrupt Ukrainian energy company, while his father was vice president.

Some sample questions Hunter Biden can expect:

Is it true you were discharged from the Navy for cocaine use months before being named to Burisma in 2014?
Do you speak Ukrainian?
What do you know about energy exploration and markets?
How many board meetings did you attend?
 Is it true you were paid more than $3 million over five years?
How much more?
Did you discuss the job with your father?
Did you ask your father to intercede in Ukrainian politics to help Burisma?

Joe Biden is already showing the strains, blasting Sen. Lindsey Graham for asking the State Department for documents relating to Joe Biden’s calls with Ukraine’s then-president and his own documented efforts to oust a prosecutor.

“Lindsey is about to go down in a way that I think he’s going to regret his whole life,” Joe Biden told reporters.

Actually, you would assume Biden might be filled with regret, given the shameful way his son profited from his father’s position.

Moreover, there are legitimate questions about the 2016 anti-Trump campaign waged by Ukrainian officials and oligarchs, which included millions of dollars in contributions to the Clinton Foundation. Were the payments to Hunter Biden and the foundation aimed at buying Democrats’ silence over Ukrainian corruption? What does Joe Biden know about that effort?

Trump also wants to call Schiff, and GOP lawyers believe there is ample precedent. They note that Bill Clinton’s lawyers grilled independent prosecutor Ken Starr during Clinton’s Senate trial.

Schiff acted as chief prosecutor against Trump and his dealings with the whistleblower would make him a key witness to the initial allegations.

Trump also wants the whistleblower to be named and forced to testify because he had no first-hand knowledge of the president’s Ukraine call. Some of the initial allegations were proven false by the transcript and some of the whistleblower’s sources might have broken the law. His links to Dems could also undermine his assertions about Trump.

A fourth possible witness would be Mark Zaid, one of the whistleblower’s attorneys. Zaid tweeted in January 2017 that a “coup has started” and that “impeachment will follow ultimately.” Trump has called Zaid a “disgrace” and suggested he should be sued for treason.

Naturally, a trial poses risks to Trump as well. New evidence and witnesses could emerge, chief among them John Bolton, the former national security adviser Trump fired. Bolton is writing a book on his time in the White House and dropping hints he’s eager to air dirty laundry.

There is also the danger that, even if Trump beats back the effort to remove him, a trial could dirty him enough that he loses at the ballot box next November.

For now, though, the president has picked a path that appears to give him the upper hand. As he likes to say, we’ll see what happens.

Here’s one to warm our hearts

Reader Colette Curry, tongue firmly in cheek, writes: “Every winter there are headlines that residents in Housing Authority buildings are without heat and hot water and must suffer vermin, mold and elevators that don’t work. But I will sleep better this winter knowing that every important city and state office is held by the one political party that stands up for the unfortunate. Such a relief to know the suffering is over.”

JFK’s political wisdom endures

With last Friday marking the 56th anniversary of the assassination of President John F. Kennedy, it is fitting to remember the 35th president for something besides his tragic murder. A personal favorite was his observation about the business he chose.

“Mothers,” JFK said, “all want their sons to grow up to be president, but they don’t want them to become politicians in the process.”

Don’t we all.