Agree. It boils down to the risk/reward factor.

Agree. It boils down to the risk/reward factor. If a good deal/partnership is announced then anyone thinking about investing in the company would only be able to acquire a progressively smaller amount of shares as the price rises. There is no way to know when such an announcement (or a rise expecting such) can start. Might never come, might be days or weeks or months. Might be Monday morning.