I agree with you and misiu that the upfront and even milestone payments between now and revenue may not be sufficient for a $4M+ monthly burn rate. I expect a small upfront payment of sub-$10M, so maybe $5M? With the $90M total upfront/milestone payments expected I am assuming that $50M is earmarked for commercial launch.....if this is seperate then that helps greatly. Based on my assumptions, that leaves only $35M for milestone payments for both combo and mono milestones.....which IMO we will need ~$40M until July 2020 (assuming $5M monthly burn rate and $5M owed to PGNX upon FDA approval)......likely not enough alone if spread amongst both combo and mono milestones.
In saying this, I think they will have better financing options than the raises we are all accustomed to. This could be warrants converting either organically or via tender offer, line of credit/loan against commercial grade inventory, captial infusion via investment bank or partner, licensing out other regions or indications, etc. Time will tell which route is chosen, but I expect the dilution to end relatively soon after the initial license deal is completed.
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