I think the chances are 30% to 50% of some combina
Post# of 154115
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Posted On: 10/23/2019 2:04:45 PM
I think the chances are 30% to 50% of some combination of a very large delay (5+ months) in the BLA submission occurs and/or NP loses control of the corporation to debt holders/preferred shareholders.
The two items will essentially go hand-in-hand.
If the chances were lower (e.g. in the 1% range), the stock would be trading much higher.
There is something going on behind the scenes that we don't know about. (If there wasn't, then more progress would be made on financing).
I hope NP gets it worked out, but I fear he won't. He said himself that he is "arrogant" when it comes to talking about valuation and deals. (I think that is a quote from the most recent call.) I think this arrogance is going to eventually catch up to us.
Pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered.
So, I'm risking my 100,000 shares in this way: 40% they go to near- zero pretty soon; 30% we get partial deal in the next 30 days and the stock moves to $1 (allowing me to sell a third of what I have at a decent profit, and basically de-risk the rest of my position); 30% chance of some type of home run ($5 or more).
And, in the words of the board: Just my opinion. But, this is what I think and what I'm expecting.
The two items will essentially go hand-in-hand.
If the chances were lower (e.g. in the 1% range), the stock would be trading much higher.
There is something going on behind the scenes that we don't know about. (If there wasn't, then more progress would be made on financing).
I hope NP gets it worked out, but I fear he won't. He said himself that he is "arrogant" when it comes to talking about valuation and deals. (I think that is a quote from the most recent call.) I think this arrogance is going to eventually catch up to us.
Pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered.
So, I'm risking my 100,000 shares in this way: 40% they go to near- zero pretty soon; 30% we get partial deal in the next 30 days and the stock moves to $1 (allowing me to sell a third of what I have at a decent profit, and basically de-risk the rest of my position); 30% chance of some type of home run ($5 or more).
And, in the words of the board: Just my opinion. But, this is what I think and what I'm expecting.
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