Another copy from IHUB by falconer66a,
Fletch
PS Had a buy order in today but never hit my price. Also IMO falconer66a posts more when pps is falling to try a shore it up. I don’t think it helps but holding longer term here should pay off...... ;> )
falconer66a Monday, 10/14/19 07:10:05 PM
Re: None 0
Post # of 214538
The Potential Alzheimer’s Market
Worldwide, nearly 50 million people have Alzheimer’s or related dementia. (Bright Focus Foundation) Only 1-in-4 people with Alzheimer’s disease have been diagnosed. (Alzheimer’s Disease International)
Therefore, worldwide, the potential Alzheimer’s market will be about 200 million. Let’s presume, then, that half of these will be in developed Western countries, where Anavex 2-73 will eventually be prescribed and used therapeutically.
https://www.alzheimers.net/resources/alzheimers-statistics/
The Potential Parkinson’s Market
An estimated seven to 10 million people worldwide have Parkinson’s disease.
https://parkinsonsnewstoday.com/parkinsons-di...tatistics/
Anavex 2-73 will have other applications for other diseases, some, perhaps of significant populations. But for these projections, only the Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s patient markets will be considered.
Total Potential Market Size for Both Diseases
In combination, the number of patients to be treated with Anavex 2-73 for these two CNS diseases will be about 110,000,000 million. For ease of computation, let’s presume a potential treatment market of 100,000,000.
Annual Treatment Costs (Anavex Revenues)
For these calculations, a range of annual per-patient revenues to Anavex Life Sciences Corp will be presumed. At the low end, treatment costs (per patient cost of Anavex 2-73) for a year will be presumed to be $1000 (that’s $2.73 a day). At the high end, a $5000 annual income per patient will be used ($12.69 of drug cost per day per patient).
Number of Anavex (AVXL) Shares.
Presently, 52,650,000 shares are outstanding, in circulation. Let’s round that off to an eventual 75,000,000.
Annual Corporate Revenues
At the high end, assuming 100,000,000 patients paying $5000 per year for Anavex 2-73, annual corporate revenues would be $500,000,000,000. That’s 500 billion dollars.
At the low end, with 100,000,000 patients paying $1000 per year for Anavex 2-73, annual corporate revenues would be $100,000,000,000. That’s 100 billion dollars in the Anavex Life Sciences bank account on the annual spreadsheet income column.
Annual Dividend Payouts
What are typical biotech dividend payout ratios? Typical payout ratios for 11 biotechs were generally in the 40% range (https://seekingalpha.com/article/4183741-best-dividend-paying-biotech-stocks-portfolio).
Let’s presume, then, that Anavex Life Sciences Corp in a few years has a typical 40% payout ratio. Forty percent of annual income is paid out to shareholders. At the high end that’s 40% of $500,000,000,000; a dividend distribution of $200,000,000,000. At the low end, it’s a 40% payout of $100,000,000,000 of annual revs; a total of $40,000,000,000.
Annual Per Share Dividends
At the high end, with $500,000,000,000 of annual revenues, with a 40% payout ratio, $200,000,000,000 gets divided among our presumed 75,000,000 outstanding shares. That’s a per share dividend of $2666.
At the low end, with $100,000,000,000 of annual revs and a 40% payout ratio, $40,000,000,000 gets divided among 75,000,000 AVXL shares. That’s a per share dividend of $533.
Eventual AVXL Share Prices
Well, given all of those data, what might eventual AVXL share prices be; at either the high or low corporate revenue levels? I’m not sure, but for fun, I calculated the eventual net value of my rather moderate AVXL holding. Simply, lots of zeros.
For eventual actual AVXL share prices (and all of the rest of the calculations and presumptions), I’ll let those more expert in such determinations weigh in.
If I’m off by an order of magnitude (10x too high), the numbers in each case are still phenomenal.
Lot’s more zeros to count if Anavex 2-73 (or 3-71) eventually find applications for other major human diseases and conditions. Very likely.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_ms...=151701843
Fletch
PS Had a buy order in today but never hit my price. Also IMO falconer66a posts more when pps is falling to try a shore it up. I don’t think it helps but holding longer term here should pay off...... ;> )
falconer66a Monday, 10/14/19 07:10:05 PM
Re: None 0
Post # of 214538
The Potential Alzheimer’s Market
Worldwide, nearly 50 million people have Alzheimer’s or related dementia. (Bright Focus Foundation) Only 1-in-4 people with Alzheimer’s disease have been diagnosed. (Alzheimer’s Disease International)
Therefore, worldwide, the potential Alzheimer’s market will be about 200 million. Let’s presume, then, that half of these will be in developed Western countries, where Anavex 2-73 will eventually be prescribed and used therapeutically.
https://www.alzheimers.net/resources/alzheimers-statistics/
The Potential Parkinson’s Market
An estimated seven to 10 million people worldwide have Parkinson’s disease.
https://parkinsonsnewstoday.com/parkinsons-di...tatistics/
Anavex 2-73 will have other applications for other diseases, some, perhaps of significant populations. But for these projections, only the Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s patient markets will be considered.
Total Potential Market Size for Both Diseases
In combination, the number of patients to be treated with Anavex 2-73 for these two CNS diseases will be about 110,000,000 million. For ease of computation, let’s presume a potential treatment market of 100,000,000.
Annual Treatment Costs (Anavex Revenues)
For these calculations, a range of annual per-patient revenues to Anavex Life Sciences Corp will be presumed. At the low end, treatment costs (per patient cost of Anavex 2-73) for a year will be presumed to be $1000 (that’s $2.73 a day). At the high end, a $5000 annual income per patient will be used ($12.69 of drug cost per day per patient).
Number of Anavex (AVXL) Shares.
Presently, 52,650,000 shares are outstanding, in circulation. Let’s round that off to an eventual 75,000,000.
Annual Corporate Revenues
At the high end, assuming 100,000,000 patients paying $5000 per year for Anavex 2-73, annual corporate revenues would be $500,000,000,000. That’s 500 billion dollars.
At the low end, with 100,000,000 patients paying $1000 per year for Anavex 2-73, annual corporate revenues would be $100,000,000,000. That’s 100 billion dollars in the Anavex Life Sciences bank account on the annual spreadsheet income column.
Annual Dividend Payouts
What are typical biotech dividend payout ratios? Typical payout ratios for 11 biotechs were generally in the 40% range (https://seekingalpha.com/article/4183741-best-dividend-paying-biotech-stocks-portfolio).
Let’s presume, then, that Anavex Life Sciences Corp in a few years has a typical 40% payout ratio. Forty percent of annual income is paid out to shareholders. At the high end that’s 40% of $500,000,000,000; a dividend distribution of $200,000,000,000. At the low end, it’s a 40% payout of $100,000,000,000 of annual revs; a total of $40,000,000,000.
Annual Per Share Dividends
At the high end, with $500,000,000,000 of annual revenues, with a 40% payout ratio, $200,000,000,000 gets divided among our presumed 75,000,000 outstanding shares. That’s a per share dividend of $2666.
At the low end, with $100,000,000,000 of annual revs and a 40% payout ratio, $40,000,000,000 gets divided among 75,000,000 AVXL shares. That’s a per share dividend of $533.
Eventual AVXL Share Prices
Well, given all of those data, what might eventual AVXL share prices be; at either the high or low corporate revenue levels? I’m not sure, but for fun, I calculated the eventual net value of my rather moderate AVXL holding. Simply, lots of zeros.
For eventual actual AVXL share prices (and all of the rest of the calculations and presumptions), I’ll let those more expert in such determinations weigh in.
If I’m off by an order of magnitude (10x too high), the numbers in each case are still phenomenal.
Lot’s more zeros to count if Anavex 2-73 (or 3-71) eventually find applications for other major human diseases and conditions. Very likely.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_ms...=151701843
1
