AAR Tanker Business Sector Update / Opinion. (U
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Posted On: 09/22/2019 8:59:25 PM
AAR Tanker Business Sector Update / Opinion.
(US) "Air Force Says It Will Be Years Before Boeing's Faulty New Tankers (KC-46A) Are Fully Operational"
Key points from latest statement:
- The USAF unable to deploy its new KC-46A Pegasus aerial refueling tankers on operational missions for at least another 3 to 4 years due to persistent technical and quality control problems.
- Deliveries continue but aircraft still have 100s of issues left to fix and are therefore of extremely limited utility in the interim.
- Mounting delays could have cascading impacts on its plans to retire older KC-135 and KC-10 tankers in the coming years.
- 4 x "Category One deficiencies" - problems that prevent an aircraft from properly carrying out core missions.
-- "flying boom" operator's Remote Vision System (RVS).
-- the "flying boom" itself.
-- "flying boom" / receiver aircraft contact damage probably tied to the RVS.
-- cargo locking system defect - which has led to inability to carry passengers and cargo in the MRTT role.
- USAF has stopped accepting deliveries of new aircraft multiple times due to production quality control problems.
-- Should have received 18 of an initial order for 52 by end-2017 - has only received 18 by September 2019 and will accept one more.
- Boeing has failed to make the progress over the past 8 months that the USAF expected when they agreed to accept the defective aircraft.
- The RVS has to be completely redesigned and this will take 3 to 4 years.
- Over 500 other unacceptable issues with the aircraft.
Read the full detail from the USAF statements here:
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/29933/a...perational
Analysis / Opinion:
Problems on the KC-46A are far worse than previously thought and it will take a lot longer to sort out - probably another 4 years until the aircraft even meet the most basic requirements.
I do not expect the USAF to order the full number of KC-46Sa originally planned for KC-X and KC-Y.
I do expect US TRANSCOM to reconsider all options - including introducing a significant element of contractorization - using legacy tankers initially ($TMPS and Omega) and then possibly new build A330 MRTT later.
As I have consistently stated for over 18 months, any contractor who can provide military air-to-air refueling capability will find work for its tankers for years to come.
I also noticed recently that the USAF KC-135s of the 100 ARW - based at RAF Mildenhall, UK and used to refuel NATO aircraft - are some of the relatively small fleet of dual role "flying boom" and "probe-and-drogue" tankers the USAF possess and were recently used to refuel RAF F-35Bs.
These KC-135s have underwing "probe-and-drogue" pods in addition to the "flying boom" - not just a "probe-and-drogue" adaptor on the "flying boom". You can see that in this video of the 100 ARW doing AAR with RAF F-35Bs on September 16, 2019 - as evidenced by the trailing hoses.
https://www.dvidshub.net/video/710322/100th-a...pt-16-2019
It was intriguing therefore why $TMPS created a UK subsidiary Tristar Air UK Ltd.
The RVS on the A330 MRTT is world class:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N5eyNxxbOhU
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cDl9O0etTUM
and perfectly acceptable on the $TMPS Tristars.
The more the USAF sees the great leap forward the next 2 most significant allied air forces in the world with tanker fleets (Royal Air Force and French Air Force) have made with the A330 MRTT, I'm pretty sure we are going to see an element of large scale contractorization come in.
I still think its is a definite possibility that we will see Airbus pitching contractor owned A330 MRTT - in lieu of a major element of the KC-46A purchase for the KC-X program and possibly for a lot of KC-Y program as well - and perhaps even doing a deal with $TMPS and Omega to subsume their assets as well until the new A330 MRTTs can be built.
Great detail on the brand new French Air Force A330 MRTT here- showing aeromed / ICU fit and the RVS (from 4:00):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rXEpe6RETQA
Even the small Republic of Singapore Air Force now has the A330 MRTT:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gSJwhWgtapA
A330 MRTT - Summary - Significant Customers / Capabilities:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1-1zll_Fe4k
Reminder of how the RAF / Airtanker Private Finance Initiative works for a fleet of 14 aircraft for 27 years for $16.5 Billion - imagine what a USAF contract for even just 20% of its overall requirement would be !
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zLy6UtXrhA0
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_WasARKqpXw
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nIoLLQxW8vw
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cYbnz7FYJjQ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rOHFxxYXFA8
(US) "Air Force Says It Will Be Years Before Boeing's Faulty New Tankers (KC-46A) Are Fully Operational"
Key points from latest statement:
- The USAF unable to deploy its new KC-46A Pegasus aerial refueling tankers on operational missions for at least another 3 to 4 years due to persistent technical and quality control problems.
- Deliveries continue but aircraft still have 100s of issues left to fix and are therefore of extremely limited utility in the interim.
- Mounting delays could have cascading impacts on its plans to retire older KC-135 and KC-10 tankers in the coming years.
- 4 x "Category One deficiencies" - problems that prevent an aircraft from properly carrying out core missions.
-- "flying boom" operator's Remote Vision System (RVS).
-- the "flying boom" itself.
-- "flying boom" / receiver aircraft contact damage probably tied to the RVS.
-- cargo locking system defect - which has led to inability to carry passengers and cargo in the MRTT role.
- USAF has stopped accepting deliveries of new aircraft multiple times due to production quality control problems.
-- Should have received 18 of an initial order for 52 by end-2017 - has only received 18 by September 2019 and will accept one more.
- Boeing has failed to make the progress over the past 8 months that the USAF expected when they agreed to accept the defective aircraft.
- The RVS has to be completely redesigned and this will take 3 to 4 years.
- Over 500 other unacceptable issues with the aircraft.
Read the full detail from the USAF statements here:
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/29933/a...perational
Analysis / Opinion:
Problems on the KC-46A are far worse than previously thought and it will take a lot longer to sort out - probably another 4 years until the aircraft even meet the most basic requirements.
I do not expect the USAF to order the full number of KC-46Sa originally planned for KC-X and KC-Y.
I do expect US TRANSCOM to reconsider all options - including introducing a significant element of contractorization - using legacy tankers initially ($TMPS and Omega) and then possibly new build A330 MRTT later.
As I have consistently stated for over 18 months, any contractor who can provide military air-to-air refueling capability will find work for its tankers for years to come.
I also noticed recently that the USAF KC-135s of the 100 ARW - based at RAF Mildenhall, UK and used to refuel NATO aircraft - are some of the relatively small fleet of dual role "flying boom" and "probe-and-drogue" tankers the USAF possess and were recently used to refuel RAF F-35Bs.
These KC-135s have underwing "probe-and-drogue" pods in addition to the "flying boom" - not just a "probe-and-drogue" adaptor on the "flying boom". You can see that in this video of the 100 ARW doing AAR with RAF F-35Bs on September 16, 2019 - as evidenced by the trailing hoses.
https://www.dvidshub.net/video/710322/100th-a...pt-16-2019
It was intriguing therefore why $TMPS created a UK subsidiary Tristar Air UK Ltd.
The RVS on the A330 MRTT is world class:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N5eyNxxbOhU
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cDl9O0etTUM
and perfectly acceptable on the $TMPS Tristars.
The more the USAF sees the great leap forward the next 2 most significant allied air forces in the world with tanker fleets (Royal Air Force and French Air Force) have made with the A330 MRTT, I'm pretty sure we are going to see an element of large scale contractorization come in.
I still think its is a definite possibility that we will see Airbus pitching contractor owned A330 MRTT - in lieu of a major element of the KC-46A purchase for the KC-X program and possibly for a lot of KC-Y program as well - and perhaps even doing a deal with $TMPS and Omega to subsume their assets as well until the new A330 MRTTs can be built.
Great detail on the brand new French Air Force A330 MRTT here- showing aeromed / ICU fit and the RVS (from 4:00):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rXEpe6RETQA
Even the small Republic of Singapore Air Force now has the A330 MRTT:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gSJwhWgtapA
A330 MRTT - Summary - Significant Customers / Capabilities:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1-1zll_Fe4k
Reminder of how the RAF / Airtanker Private Finance Initiative works for a fleet of 14 aircraft for 27 years for $16.5 Billion - imagine what a USAF contract for even just 20% of its overall requirement would be !
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zLy6UtXrhA0
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_WasARKqpXw
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nIoLLQxW8vw
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cYbnz7FYJjQ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rOHFxxYXFA8
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"Per Ardua Ad Astra" - "Through Adversity To The Stars"
A very apposite motto for those who trade successfully in the OTC market..
All posts are my opinion - trade at your own risk.
A very apposite motto for those who trade successfully in the OTC market..
All posts are my opinion - trade at your own risk.
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