My main takes from the investor's meeting: It w
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Posted On: 09/13/2019 6:27:31 PM
My main takes from the investor's meeting:
It was extraordinarily positive in many ways, so much that maybe the trees are not letting us see the forest. IMHO in order of importance just 5 takeaways (of the many discussed during the webcast):
1) Possible Up-listing: This is HUGE. If CDY is seriously preparing the paperwork and the stock price behaves the way is supposed to, this can happen rapidly. The impact is, simply stated, that there will be more visibility with a wider base of possible cash-rich investors (both, retail and institutional) into the company, and, added credibility resulting in obvious appreciation. The increase of exposure will be very large (compared to the current one). Even with no clinical catalyzers the SP will increase considerably. Also, not to be forgotten is the coverage from analysts. NASDAQ recons that after uplisting the average 3-month daily volume increases by 132%. I think CYDY could look into listing with American Stock Exchange (I believe NP mentioned the New York Stock exchange to which it belongs).
2) Signed non-binding NBA: here I have to be clear, not sure if NP misspoke when he said that there was going to be a 50% royalty in sales (I listened to the webcast again and that is what he said, however he might have miss-recalled the deal). This is highly unusual. If this is the case, the partner is very likely a BP simply because the typical margin for profit discounting 50% of sales is bound to be small (meaning paying CYDY 70%-80% of profits accounting for normal expenses in the industry) meaning the company has a sales structure in place and works with high-volume low-side margins. Can’t think of a small company accepting a 50% of sales deal. Also, expenses of launching the product will be taken care by this company plus some more money for CYDY $40M). This is USA only, they are talking in 8 major markets (Japan EU and ?). Needless to say, all those could add up considerably to CYDYs revenue once the “gates are open” with FDA approval and subsequent USA sales
3) NP was very optimistic about the possible Oncology indications (indirectly meaning everything is well in this front). He says that CTC human data will change the outlook of the company. 1st mTNBC patient being assessed under protocol. This means few more patients (maybe 4) and he can go and “talk to the FDA”. This probably means a rapid protocol progression for this indication which is humongous (I don’t want to think about it as it gives me goose flesh). Anyway, back to reality: the first compassionate patient is likely doing well as the protocol study is now underway (my inference).
4) FDA said: “Adamantly want to get approval for your Combinational and Monotherapy”. Adamantly?? Does FDA use this kind of committed language?? If so, this is worth its weight in gold. They seem to be looking seriously at the 700 mg dose and need 24 weeks’ safety and adequacy data for this prescription in order to decide on dosage, which will be ready soon. I take it there will be then, afterwards, a prompt decision. In one line: there will be a BLA approval, the only question is the dosage.
5) Non-HIV “deep” talks going on with “people in the data room right now”: Here I personally would prefer that these weren’t happening. I invested in CYDY based solely on the HIV indications (combo is good enough for me as my price target will fulfilled it this materializes). However, if any of the oncology indications works this will go to the moon. I believe is too early to have talks as these surely will undercut the potential for CYDY. I think the company should “calm down” get HIV combo through the goal, then Mono and then continue its research in oncology on its own (resources will be there). The value that this can generate is prodigious. Unless, of course, there is a substantial B.O. offer from a BP.
I bought some more shares today @ $0.385
GLTYA
It was extraordinarily positive in many ways, so much that maybe the trees are not letting us see the forest. IMHO in order of importance just 5 takeaways (of the many discussed during the webcast):
1) Possible Up-listing: This is HUGE. If CDY is seriously preparing the paperwork and the stock price behaves the way is supposed to, this can happen rapidly. The impact is, simply stated, that there will be more visibility with a wider base of possible cash-rich investors (both, retail and institutional) into the company, and, added credibility resulting in obvious appreciation. The increase of exposure will be very large (compared to the current one). Even with no clinical catalyzers the SP will increase considerably. Also, not to be forgotten is the coverage from analysts. NASDAQ recons that after uplisting the average 3-month daily volume increases by 132%. I think CYDY could look into listing with American Stock Exchange (I believe NP mentioned the New York Stock exchange to which it belongs).
2) Signed non-binding NBA: here I have to be clear, not sure if NP misspoke when he said that there was going to be a 50% royalty in sales (I listened to the webcast again and that is what he said, however he might have miss-recalled the deal). This is highly unusual. If this is the case, the partner is very likely a BP simply because the typical margin for profit discounting 50% of sales is bound to be small (meaning paying CYDY 70%-80% of profits accounting for normal expenses in the industry) meaning the company has a sales structure in place and works with high-volume low-side margins. Can’t think of a small company accepting a 50% of sales deal. Also, expenses of launching the product will be taken care by this company plus some more money for CYDY $40M). This is USA only, they are talking in 8 major markets (Japan EU and ?). Needless to say, all those could add up considerably to CYDYs revenue once the “gates are open” with FDA approval and subsequent USA sales
3) NP was very optimistic about the possible Oncology indications (indirectly meaning everything is well in this front). He says that CTC human data will change the outlook of the company. 1st mTNBC patient being assessed under protocol. This means few more patients (maybe 4) and he can go and “talk to the FDA”. This probably means a rapid protocol progression for this indication which is humongous (I don’t want to think about it as it gives me goose flesh). Anyway, back to reality: the first compassionate patient is likely doing well as the protocol study is now underway (my inference).
4) FDA said: “Adamantly want to get approval for your Combinational and Monotherapy”. Adamantly?? Does FDA use this kind of committed language?? If so, this is worth its weight in gold. They seem to be looking seriously at the 700 mg dose and need 24 weeks’ safety and adequacy data for this prescription in order to decide on dosage, which will be ready soon. I take it there will be then, afterwards, a prompt decision. In one line: there will be a BLA approval, the only question is the dosage.
5) Non-HIV “deep” talks going on with “people in the data room right now”: Here I personally would prefer that these weren’t happening. I invested in CYDY based solely on the HIV indications (combo is good enough for me as my price target will fulfilled it this materializes). However, if any of the oncology indications works this will go to the moon. I believe is too early to have talks as these surely will undercut the potential for CYDY. I think the company should “calm down” get HIV combo through the goal, then Mono and then continue its research in oncology on its own (resources will be there). The value that this can generate is prodigious. Unless, of course, there is a substantial B.O. offer from a BP.
I bought some more shares today @ $0.385
GLTYA
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