Misiu, Thanks for your prolific and very inform
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Posted On: 09/08/2019 7:08:35 PM
Misiu,
Thanks for your prolific and very informacional input. Mostly I agree with you.
In regards to PrEP, is a factor that has been somewhat forgotten as possible indication for Lero.
As more and more people take PrEP all over the world (patients using Truvada increased from 157 000 in Q1 2018 to 201 000 in Q1 2019). GILD after losing exclusivity with TRUVADA launched (or is trying to) Descovy that theoretically has fewer side effects (mainly kidney-related).
And there are GSK candidates with Cabotegravir and MK-8591 (a NRTI) that is researched in combination (with Pifeltro) and as mono (19% of participants taking cabotegravir experienced a serious injection site reaction).
In any case, a good PrEP drug with fewer or no side effects would be adopted rapidly by the marker (much better if is not a daily pill but a longer-lasting application).
With sales of around $3B currently, the US market alone is projected to be $5,5B by 3030 and growing. It is logical to expect in the future less HIV “maintenance” and more prevention.
The point here is that the trial in Thailand has value in the sense that if Leronlimab probes to be a good PrEP drug there is a huge market (as you rightly point out) waiting there to replace TRUVADA as the new king of the hill. This indication alone would account for several multiples the current SP of CYDY.
Waiting anxiously for the meeting on the 12th.
Thanks for your prolific and very informacional input. Mostly I agree with you.
In regards to PrEP, is a factor that has been somewhat forgotten as possible indication for Lero.
As more and more people take PrEP all over the world (patients using Truvada increased from 157 000 in Q1 2018 to 201 000 in Q1 2019). GILD after losing exclusivity with TRUVADA launched (or is trying to) Descovy that theoretically has fewer side effects (mainly kidney-related).
And there are GSK candidates with Cabotegravir and MK-8591 (a NRTI) that is researched in combination (with Pifeltro) and as mono (19% of participants taking cabotegravir experienced a serious injection site reaction).
In any case, a good PrEP drug with fewer or no side effects would be adopted rapidly by the marker (much better if is not a daily pill but a longer-lasting application).
With sales of around $3B currently, the US market alone is projected to be $5,5B by 3030 and growing. It is logical to expect in the future less HIV “maintenance” and more prevention.
The point here is that the trial in Thailand has value in the sense that if Leronlimab probes to be a good PrEP drug there is a huge market (as you rightly point out) waiting there to replace TRUVADA as the new king of the hill. This indication alone would account for several multiples the current SP of CYDY.
Waiting anxiously for the meeting on the 12th.
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