Copy of a post I made on iHub answering a sharehol
Post# of 2306
(Total Views: 205)
Posted On: 09/02/2019 5:17:50 PM
Copy of a post I made on iHub answering a shareholder question:
Personally I do not think we will see the $TMPS original contract necessarily cancelled until after the USN sees what industry attendees come up with in their written submissions prior to September 12, 2019 and in one-on-one discussions on the day.
The fact remains that Omega were maxed out in providing 2,733 flight hours last year and are totally incapable of providing 4,000 flight hours the USN would like as a minimum in 2020 [detailed analysis in posts elsewhere].
$TMPS could cover the whole 4,000 hours with its larger, higher offload capacity fleet alone but even they would have trouble with that if the tasks were split between West Coast and East Coast locations ona frequent basis.
Hence why the USN is considering the MAC - multiple companies with much shorter staffing periods between Request For Proposals and Contract Award.
I also think that 10 years is being considered as that is enough time for the "big boys" Airbus and Northrop / Grumman to see what falls out of the USAF review of whether to continue with the KC-X, KC-Y and KC-Z programs - or to cut back the buy of the behind schedule KC-46A in KC-X, have a large element of the less warlike tasks done by contractors instead of part of KC-X and KC-Y, and still have KC-Z as a hostile area penetrating stealth tanker.
If President Trump is elected for a second term, we can expect a continuation of a drive down of costs and full investigation of all Value For Money options - as has already happened with the Replacement Presidential Aircraft, Replacement Presidential Helicopter and F-35A/B/C Programs. In that event, some contractorization of the USAF task is possible - particularly when the success of the RAF's contractor owned / partly contractor operated A330 Voyager fleet is hard to ignore.
Airbus would undoubtedly bid for a USAF contract with the A330 MRTT which already has a dual-purpose "flying boom" and "probe-and-drogue" variant fully developed in in-service. Whether they would be interested in the small-by-comparison USN task for the next 10 years remains to be seen (and they would have to build the aircraft first before they could start anyway).
Personally I do not think we will see the $TMPS original contract necessarily cancelled until after the USN sees what industry attendees come up with in their written submissions prior to September 12, 2019 and in one-on-one discussions on the day.
The fact remains that Omega were maxed out in providing 2,733 flight hours last year and are totally incapable of providing 4,000 flight hours the USN would like as a minimum in 2020 [detailed analysis in posts elsewhere].
$TMPS could cover the whole 4,000 hours with its larger, higher offload capacity fleet alone but even they would have trouble with that if the tasks were split between West Coast and East Coast locations ona frequent basis.
Hence why the USN is considering the MAC - multiple companies with much shorter staffing periods between Request For Proposals and Contract Award.
I also think that 10 years is being considered as that is enough time for the "big boys" Airbus and Northrop / Grumman to see what falls out of the USAF review of whether to continue with the KC-X, KC-Y and KC-Z programs - or to cut back the buy of the behind schedule KC-46A in KC-X, have a large element of the less warlike tasks done by contractors instead of part of KC-X and KC-Y, and still have KC-Z as a hostile area penetrating stealth tanker.
If President Trump is elected for a second term, we can expect a continuation of a drive down of costs and full investigation of all Value For Money options - as has already happened with the Replacement Presidential Aircraft, Replacement Presidential Helicopter and F-35A/B/C Programs. In that event, some contractorization of the USAF task is possible - particularly when the success of the RAF's contractor owned / partly contractor operated A330 Voyager fleet is hard to ignore.
Airbus would undoubtedly bid for a USAF contract with the A330 MRTT which already has a dual-purpose "flying boom" and "probe-and-drogue" variant fully developed in in-service. Whether they would be interested in the small-by-comparison USN task for the next 10 years remains to be seen (and they would have to build the aircraft first before they could start anyway).
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A very apposite motto for those who trade successfully in the OTC market..
All posts are my opinion - trade at your own risk.
A very apposite motto for those who trade successfully in the OTC market..
All posts are my opinion - trade at your own risk.