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Financial planners do things like say that if you

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Post# of 43066
Posted On: 01/31/2013 5:36:30 PM
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Posted By: yuggibeht
Re: Gooeyduck #3802

Financial planners do things like say that if you get a return of 5%/ year... what will be your retirement income? That kind of thing. No, I would be talking about trading. Short-term trading.


It helps to think of the different kind of players in the market. One professor once told me that there are 4 kinds of players:


- long term buy and holders


- short-term traders


- arbitragers


- and another I can't remember.. maybe short sellers?


Anyway, it helps to know who you are.


Volume is a basic indicator, as has been pointed out. Increasing volume means the current trend is likely to continue. However, yesterday's massive volume did not result in much of a price increase. That is a sign that a top has been reached. Plus the fact that it was a 3-day run. The indicators (Money Flow) confirmed it. Odds are that profit-taking (short-term trader's participating) will occur.


Having said htat, I know it is much harder to sell than to hold. I don't do it well myself. It takes balls.


But, hopefully yesterday if I was a holder, I would have sold half my position and been prepared to accept the consequences (potentially going higher...?).  Or going lower.. satisfaction. Worst case it lowers your average cost of capital, even if you have a paper loss in the short term. You would have a loss if your average is less than $1.50.



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