One thing I caught when re-listening to the ThinkE
Post# of 148294
(Total Views: 435)
Posted On: 06/11/2019 3:01:00 PM
One thing I caught when re-listening to the ThinkEquity Conference presentation during the Q&A it was asked where the projected $480K revenue came from. This may have been discussed previously but NP stated it was based on BioVid's projected market penetration of 37-43%....so they went with 40%. 40% of $1.2M = $480K.
....But the $1.2M is based on annual sales of 49,000 patients was the old $24,000 or $25,000 price. The current LD slides have 25,000 patients (reduced from 49,000....or almost 50% less) times current expected price of $120,000 to total $3B.
I'm not trying to say the price is too high or low, that estimated R2+ R5 patient pool is the right size or that market penetration will be greater or less than 40%......the point I am trying to make is that if they price at $70,000, $118,000 or $120,000 the other two number are extremely conservative, meaning likelihood of achieving >$480K in 2020 revenues is extremely likely if approved before end of Q1 (which I believe it will) and they don't fall on their face during launch. Some will argue selling a drug is difficult and I agree to a certain extent, but these are patients with not a lot of other options, so the centers that are having to turn away patients for trials will be able to redirect them to an approved drug (whether on or off-label). I'm sure there is some unknowns such as the distribution partner (recently mentioned by NP) that may take 30-40% and some cushion as to not set the bar too high, or whether they end up licensing and only see a % of the revenue and thus why they haven't changed their $480K estimated 2020 revenue the entire time the price increased almost 5 fold?
I know IZ hasn't been very successful, so maybe I'm off with my assumptions above. I would hope that even if they can generate 50% of their projection that we will be able to pay Samsung, clean up our other liabilities and allow other trials to move ahead full steam.
....But the $1.2M is based on annual sales of 49,000 patients was the old $24,000 or $25,000 price. The current LD slides have 25,000 patients (reduced from 49,000....or almost 50% less) times current expected price of $120,000 to total $3B.
I'm not trying to say the price is too high or low, that estimated R2+ R5 patient pool is the right size or that market penetration will be greater or less than 40%......the point I am trying to make is that if they price at $70,000, $118,000 or $120,000 the other two number are extremely conservative, meaning likelihood of achieving >$480K in 2020 revenues is extremely likely if approved before end of Q1 (which I believe it will) and they don't fall on their face during launch. Some will argue selling a drug is difficult and I agree to a certain extent, but these are patients with not a lot of other options, so the centers that are having to turn away patients for trials will be able to redirect them to an approved drug (whether on or off-label). I'm sure there is some unknowns such as the distribution partner (recently mentioned by NP) that may take 30-40% and some cushion as to not set the bar too high, or whether they end up licensing and only see a % of the revenue and thus why they haven't changed their $480K estimated 2020 revenue the entire time the price increased almost 5 fold?
I know IZ hasn't been very successful, so maybe I'm off with my assumptions above. I would hope that even if they can generate 50% of their projection that we will be able to pay Samsung, clean up our other liabilities and allow other trials to move ahead full steam.
(1)
(0)CytoDyn Inc (CYDY) Stock Research Links
Please do your own due diligence. All my posts and comments are not to be considered investment advice.
Scroll down for more posts ▼