I know you said you're not selling CYDY shares, so
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Posted On: 05/21/2019 5:29:53 PM
Re: I_luv_cydy #3262
I know you said you're not selling CYDY shares, so this is more of an exposition on why other folks should consider this carefully, or why we should question if the selling we saw today is from warrant holders, etc.
I understand your thought process, and it's exactly what tripped us up on our analysis the first go round a day or two back. I see why you wouldn't count the warrants in your shares. But, if you look at your position from the standpoint of exposure at terminal value - e.g. there's a buyout - then those are shares you have exposure to, you just haven't paid for them yet. And you would expect to "pay" for them through future share appreciation in excess of the warrant exercise price. In this sense, hypothetically selling a share at $0.40 to exercise a warrant and get a bonus .5 shares is essentially turning two shares of total exposure into 1.5 shares of exposure.
Like I said, I do see why you think about it the way you do. I can also see why folks would be in particular situations that would change their thinking - very expensive warrants, or warrants near expiration, for example. But if I had warrants that I'd acquired in the last year or two, I would fully expect them to be in the money in the future, and would be looking at my position as an all-in level of exposure that I was managing based on an expected terminal value. Just my two cents!
It's all hypotheticals and mental gymnastics for me anyways, since I'm not a sophisticated enough investor by SEC standards to participate in PIPE/RD offerings. C'est la vie. I suspect my position in CytoDyn will eventually change my qualification!
I understand your thought process, and it's exactly what tripped us up on our analysis the first go round a day or two back. I see why you wouldn't count the warrants in your shares. But, if you look at your position from the standpoint of exposure at terminal value - e.g. there's a buyout - then those are shares you have exposure to, you just haven't paid for them yet. And you would expect to "pay" for them through future share appreciation in excess of the warrant exercise price. In this sense, hypothetically selling a share at $0.40 to exercise a warrant and get a bonus .5 shares is essentially turning two shares of total exposure into 1.5 shares of exposure.
Like I said, I do see why you think about it the way you do. I can also see why folks would be in particular situations that would change their thinking - very expensive warrants, or warrants near expiration, for example. But if I had warrants that I'd acquired in the last year or two, I would fully expect them to be in the money in the future, and would be looking at my position as an all-in level of exposure that I was managing based on an expected terminal value. Just my two cents!
It's all hypotheticals and mental gymnastics for me anyways, since I'm not a sophisticated enough investor by SEC standards to participate in PIPE/RD offerings. C'est la vie. I suspect my position in CytoDyn will eventually change my qualification!
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