Forecasting accurate revenue numbers was a criti

Forecasting accurate revenue numbers was a critical requirement in my career. We used self- explanatory categories of Best Case, Most Likely and Worse Case. My exercise in B-OM stand -alone value in post # 54930 used Worse Case numbers. The numbers I believe represent the Most Likely outcome for B-OM and IPIX in general are much higher. It is interesting that one poster tried to put a 22% success rate to knock my already low ball estimates by another 78%. First off the article he used for his stats is dated 2/14/11 which uses the previous 10 years data. A lot has changed in the last 8-18 years. The current Administration is also much more aggressive in getting new drugs to market than in the past. IPIX with B-OM as a simple swish-and-spit has a much better likelihood than "average" of a successful Phase 3. There is no drug available for the PREVENTION of OM. That gives the FDA even greater motivation for approval of B-OM. Even if you accept these outdated numbers we are still at 55% x 80 percent = 44 percent. The poster incorrectly divides again by half because that is the amount that get approved on the first attempt. That is a meaningless stat if shareholders are willing to wait for approval which we have proven with our patience. Using the outdated 44 percentage which again does not represent reality, we still come up with a B-OM ONLY share price of $4.25 to $8.50 or $15.05 to $30.10 depending on whether you use IONS PE of 41 or the biotech average of 145. With a huge IBD market we can probably multiply those #s by a minimum of 3x to 4x. Now we are at $12.75 to $25.50 on the LOW END of the estimate using the lower PE. We still haven't factored in dermatitis revenue to the Brilacidin franchise value. Note that once approved we are back to a minimum of 100% of my Low-ball estimate and not 44%. I would be OK with a Brilacidin franchise value with a STARTING POINT of $20+/share plus dermatitis in 2020 with great growth opportunity each additional year. Add in Kevetrin and we are easily looking at a $100 plus share price. Note that the majority of biotech companies do not have net earnings but many of those are still priced above $100/share. The minute a license deal is signed IPIX share dilution stops and IPIX becomes a rarity in the biotech field as it becomes profitable and will no longer be considered Pre-revenue. There is a premium added to companies that make money and still have huge upside growth potential.