Great post! Also keep in mind that Leo's calculati
Post# of 72447
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Posted On: 04/10/2019 2:22:04 PM
Great post! Also keep in mind that Leo's calculation of 600m - 1.2B annual revenue is based on the HNC patients alone (120k HNC patients x 5k treatment = 600m).
The blog also states that the calculated Brilacidin market share with off-label patients is 650k patients instead of "only" 120k HNC patients!
http://www.ipharminc.com/new-blog/2019/4/9/br...-mucositis
If you include the off-label patients in those calculation you get a much higher revenue: 650k x 5k = 3.25B/ year.
Now let's apply those numbers to your calculations (with the 5k per treatment number only).
Total revenue from just B-OM with off-label market = $390M ($3.25B x 12% royalty)
Annual IPIX Earnings using only revenue from B-OM = $370 (deducting $20M/yr expenses)
Earnings per Share = 1,681 ($370 / 220M shares)
IPIX stock price using royalty based IONS PE of 41 = $68.95
IPIX stock price using biotech average PE of 145 = $243.84
I'd be more than happy if your original numbers came true. My point is simply don't forget the off-label market. Leo even gave us the basis for this with his number of 650k patients per year!
Read More: https://investorshangout.com/post/view?id=541...z5kiF2qO8E
The blog also states that the calculated Brilacidin market share with off-label patients is 650k patients instead of "only" 120k HNC patients!
http://www.ipharminc.com/new-blog/2019/4/9/br...-mucositis
If you include the off-label patients in those calculation you get a much higher revenue: 650k x 5k = 3.25B/ year.
Now let's apply those numbers to your calculations (with the 5k per treatment number only).
Total revenue from just B-OM with off-label market = $390M ($3.25B x 12% royalty)
Annual IPIX Earnings using only revenue from B-OM = $370 (deducting $20M/yr expenses)
Earnings per Share = 1,681 ($370 / 220M shares)
IPIX stock price using royalty based IONS PE of 41 = $68.95
IPIX stock price using biotech average PE of 145 = $243.84
I'd be more than happy if your original numbers came true. My point is simply don't forget the off-label market. Leo even gave us the basis for this with his number of 650k patients per year!
Read More: https://investorshangout.com/post/view?id=541...z5kiF2qO8E
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