Thank you all for the input here. While I think w
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Posted On: 04/04/2019 10:44:13 AM
Re: BlackDoggie #1739
Thank you all for the input here. While I think we all have concerns about financing and the potential risks involved to take leronlimab alone, the conversations here remain constructive and helpful. Like CI, I appreciate contrary points of view from those of my own if they are based on substance and presented in a decent manner.
Personally I am glad management and the BOD is addressing this now and not later when they would be forced to and it would be much more difficult to implement a successful launch. Is this simply a negotiation tactic? Possibly, but IMO there is also some serious consideration that this may actually play out and the BOD has drawn a line in the sand that will determine which path is taken.
I do think they will have a deal for the PCa test relatively soon (within 3 months). How much upfront payment will this bring in, I am not sure? Say the mid-point BD mentions ($50M-150M) to establish a team is $100M and they need ~$50M to keep the trials going and lights on for 12 months, that is $150M until revenue. I don't see the PCa test bringing in that amount of up-front cash....so as others mentioned dilutive financing will likely be needed. Maybe they will do some small raises until the PCa deal is closed and dilute later with a higher SP as lorbas noted? I would be okay with a little further dilution at a higher share price also. Also, much of the $100M marketing and sales expense wouldn't occur until sales begin as Zuess mentioned much of this cost is commission, so maybe this $100M figure is high? I would assume there would be a base salary, training and travel costs needed 3-6 months pre-launch (at minimum).
While I hope they are able to come to terms for an HIV deal as it removes most of the uncertainty and risk that remains for CYDY, I also don't think it is impossible to successfully bring HIV to market alone either.....and the risk may be worth the reward down the road (but it may be a bumpy ride).
Personally I am glad management and the BOD is addressing this now and not later when they would be forced to and it would be much more difficult to implement a successful launch. Is this simply a negotiation tactic? Possibly, but IMO there is also some serious consideration that this may actually play out and the BOD has drawn a line in the sand that will determine which path is taken.
I do think they will have a deal for the PCa test relatively soon (within 3 months). How much upfront payment will this bring in, I am not sure? Say the mid-point BD mentions ($50M-150M) to establish a team is $100M and they need ~$50M to keep the trials going and lights on for 12 months, that is $150M until revenue. I don't see the PCa test bringing in that amount of up-front cash....so as others mentioned dilutive financing will likely be needed. Maybe they will do some small raises until the PCa deal is closed and dilute later with a higher SP as lorbas noted? I would be okay with a little further dilution at a higher share price also. Also, much of the $100M marketing and sales expense wouldn't occur until sales begin as Zuess mentioned much of this cost is commission, so maybe this $100M figure is high? I would assume there would be a base salary, training and travel costs needed 3-6 months pre-launch (at minimum).
While I hope they are able to come to terms for an HIV deal as it removes most of the uncertainty and risk that remains for CYDY, I also don't think it is impossible to successfully bring HIV to market alone either.....and the risk may be worth the reward down the road (but it may be a bumpy ride).
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