I think this morning's PR is fairly important news
Post# of 154130
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Posted On: 04/01/2019 9:49:52 AM
I think this morning's PR is fairly important news, though we all know the market won't react to it (and know the reasons why).
Based on my quick google research, 10-20% of breast cancer is TNBC, and another 20-30% of breast cancer is HER2 positive, for a total of 30-50% of breast cancers that now may benefit from treatment with CCR5 antagonists (remember that TNBC and HER2 positive are mutually exclusive conditions, so the percentages are additive).
In other words, based on this new research (which i think IS new information unless I've missed something, please correct me if I'm wrong), the potential market for leronlimab in breast cancer may have just more than doubled.
Again, according to google, there are approx. 270,000 new breast cancer cases annually in the US alone.
Just assuming the lower % is correct (i.e., 30% of BC is either TNBC or HER2 positive), that is approximately 90,000 new cases annually.
Make another conservative assumption that leronlimab is eventually used to treat 1/3 of those patients (i.e., 33% market penetration, for 30,000 cases annually).
Make another reasonably conservative assumption that leronlimab is priced at $70,000/year.
Do the math, then remember that these were reasonably conservative assumptions for the US market alone.
Now consider why CYDY may be taking its time in deciding whether and when to partner.
Based on my quick google research, 10-20% of breast cancer is TNBC, and another 20-30% of breast cancer is HER2 positive, for a total of 30-50% of breast cancers that now may benefit from treatment with CCR5 antagonists (remember that TNBC and HER2 positive are mutually exclusive conditions, so the percentages are additive).
In other words, based on this new research (which i think IS new information unless I've missed something, please correct me if I'm wrong), the potential market for leronlimab in breast cancer may have just more than doubled.
Again, according to google, there are approx. 270,000 new breast cancer cases annually in the US alone.
Just assuming the lower % is correct (i.e., 30% of BC is either TNBC or HER2 positive), that is approximately 90,000 new cases annually.
Make another conservative assumption that leronlimab is eventually used to treat 1/3 of those patients (i.e., 33% market penetration, for 30,000 cases annually).
Make another reasonably conservative assumption that leronlimab is priced at $70,000/year.
Do the math, then remember that these were reasonably conservative assumptions for the US market alone.
Now consider why CYDY may be taking its time in deciding whether and when to partner.
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