While I am sure all investors appreciate due dilig
Post# of 11899
While I am sure all investors appreciate due diligence by way of communication directly with the T/A, I have always just simply used the SS metrics on the OTC market website so that is what I posted. Indeed the O/S may very well have changed but if only by ~30M shares then that has a dilutive effect of only about 2% which is negligible, from my perspective. IMO concerns about a specific MM sitting on the ASK periodically in a big way means nothing in my book because these PK stocks are very easily manipulated and no one can know if the "shares" on the ASK are real or not; could just be borrowed or unborrowed shares in margin accounts shorted and placed on the ASK to scare away buyers so they can print prices lower and then cover lower to eek out a profit each day. Take a look at the average daily short metrics, it may surprise you; contrary to popular belief, those daily short figures actually mean what they purport to mean (simply how many short sales are executed daily versus total volume, nothing complicated about it). Sorry but I do not subscribe to this old wives tale about VNDM always being the dilution culprit. Besides, an extra 143M or 30M shares into the float, even if a participant dumped all at once would be able to be absorbed without day after day, week after week, month after month downtrends in the PPS; average daily volume is now close to that 30M mark so IMO it is not possible to place blame on the PPS performance on IronRidge or a particular MM or market participant. The MMs all collude and flip for daily gains at the expense of the PPS, we should all realize this by now. There are 1.2B shares in the float and on any given day meager volume of 20M or so shares can knock this down 25%+. The chart is FULL of RED CANDLES, so I share your pain as far as a brokerage account bleeding RED BAD. You are entitled to your opinion and its all very interesting but I just do not think your reasoning as a factor is what is the primary cause for the poor stock performance. There are many shenannigans going on in the market, especially down here in pinky swamp land, some will tell you all about it.
Its good that you are not a cheerleader or a basher, I also always come out somewhere in the middle ground; its the best place to be mentally as an investor. However we must all realize that with such a large float VERSUS the number of actual investors and traders interested in RFMK and who follow the stock and company means that very few shares per day can trade to move the stock. When this kind of dynamic happens, it is very easy to get caught up in causal relationships which actually do not really tell you why the stock is moving or what reasons the stock is moving either way. Volume is the lie detector for stocks. If 200M+ shares (16% of the float) traded down 50% one day and the PPS stayed there then I would put more weight into that move and realize that perhaps it really should be valued that low but if only 10M or 20M shares trade and push it up 25%+ or down 25%+, I do not really pay much attention because it is just noise. If you enjoy drawing conclusions and correlations on the stocks movements based on such noise and chaos in the market place then have at it but I just cannot subscribe to such conjecture.
In my opinion, the float is drastically too large compared to the RFMK followers and those trading and/or investing in the stock (right now). Also I think that ratio could get better for investors over time, especially once the audit and 10K become realized accomplishments and not just perceived by some as a dangling carrot by the CEO. Revenues are a distant goal, perhaps for the end of this year. 2012 was a development year, and launching the product, I do not expect any significant revenues. Perhaps in Q1 this year the revenues will begin to roll in but it will take time. As a loyal long I am not actually looking for revenues in the 10K, I simply need transparency in order to invest another dollar in this company. Remember, the stock is NOT the company and vice versa. As a loyal long what I care about is what moves the COMPANY NOT the STOCK. If the company performs well I imagine the stock will follow eventually and even if it does not then all that would mean to me is there exists an even better investment opportunity. Of course, we cannot dismiss ongoing dilution but it is expected to occur in micro cap start ups pumping the gas to get the engine to turn over, and it does in fact raise funds for operations so it is not all bad for investors; like most things, there are pros and cons to it. I agree, I am not spending another dime on the stock until the 10K comes out, I have said that for over half a year now. Perhaps soon the CEO will give us the red meat and the main course so we can move forward with our investments and thesis. Right now we seem to be stuck in the mud playing with the pigs. As they say, bulls make money, bears make money, but pigs get slaughtered. I do happen to think though that I may be smelling a little smell of fresh bacon in the air, maybe.... "soon".
May the force be with us.
$RFMK