And if what know it all states is true and they ha
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Posted On: 03/09/2019 11:52:22 AM
And if what know it all states is true and they have an interest here this holding could turn profitable.
If this happens it would be a defensive ploy on the part of Platinum. Buy a curve tweaker technology to add several additional years to your own foundational technology that has fallen on hard times, partly because of poor business decisions on the part of your predecessor, partly because you were duped, and partly because the trend away from test strips and meters that do not correct for HCT is gaining speed. +/- 15% with >4% interference doesn't get the job done anymore, and that's where Platinum is stuck.
There are 3 ways Platinum can remedy this problem.
1. Have your own R&D create a better mouse trap. Well Platinum and their predecessor J&J have been trying for over a decade with many failures, including a spectacular failure in 2012-2013.
2. Make an acquisition of a company that can provide a path into the near future with a technology that will allow a declining but loyal patient base that still numbers about 4 million worldwide to buy into a staged technological change while allowing Platinum, for the first time, to advertise the crap out of being a technology leader instead of a "me too" with marketing muscle. IMO this approach is doomed to failure because of what we in the industry call "the not invented here syndrome." Lifescan middle level management would be made out to be fools and incompetent and would thus stand in the way of such an acquisition, and either succeed or cause such a stir that Platinum management would just throw in the towel and concede failure that they could not manage their own property.
3. A variant of #2 above. Platinum could enter into a joint licensing agreement with a company that owns the solution they are looking for. A true to life genuine life cycle curve tweaker. Platinum would insist that this new found partner would have to license the current Lifescan products (even if they didn't want to) and in return Platinum would license the technology and product that will save their $2 billion investment. Platinum would probably put a cap on license fees, say $100 million (but perhaps more). Lifescan middle management would be assuaged because they would be given a new finished product to manage, saving their collective careers (who wants to be the last guy there to turn off the lights), and in one swift motion Platinum would add, IMO, about $1.5 billion in value to their property. Then they could flip the asset, make a profit, and then never again do business with J&J.
But none of this will make the DECN trader/flipper shareholder base happy. Because a $100 million license arrangement means Mr. Berman stays in command, and the DECN shareholder base wants him gone, or dead, or in jail, because as everyone knows, it is all about share price. Actual business decisions are unimportant, and in today's world going against the prevailing grain, no matter how dumb these people are or sound, gets you shouted down.
And by the way, if I were a glass 90% empty sort of guy I would trash and then ignore my analysis above. Because as we have found out, a company CEO is a total incompetent and a dummy and perhaps a criminal if he doesn't direct all of his attention to share price and my analysis, or any analysis like it written by a businessman, is certainly not solely about share price.
If this happens it would be a defensive ploy on the part of Platinum. Buy a curve tweaker technology to add several additional years to your own foundational technology that has fallen on hard times, partly because of poor business decisions on the part of your predecessor, partly because you were duped, and partly because the trend away from test strips and meters that do not correct for HCT is gaining speed. +/- 15% with >4% interference doesn't get the job done anymore, and that's where Platinum is stuck.
There are 3 ways Platinum can remedy this problem.
1. Have your own R&D create a better mouse trap. Well Platinum and their predecessor J&J have been trying for over a decade with many failures, including a spectacular failure in 2012-2013.
2. Make an acquisition of a company that can provide a path into the near future with a technology that will allow a declining but loyal patient base that still numbers about 4 million worldwide to buy into a staged technological change while allowing Platinum, for the first time, to advertise the crap out of being a technology leader instead of a "me too" with marketing muscle. IMO this approach is doomed to failure because of what we in the industry call "the not invented here syndrome." Lifescan middle level management would be made out to be fools and incompetent and would thus stand in the way of such an acquisition, and either succeed or cause such a stir that Platinum management would just throw in the towel and concede failure that they could not manage their own property.
3. A variant of #2 above. Platinum could enter into a joint licensing agreement with a company that owns the solution they are looking for. A true to life genuine life cycle curve tweaker. Platinum would insist that this new found partner would have to license the current Lifescan products (even if they didn't want to) and in return Platinum would license the technology and product that will save their $2 billion investment. Platinum would probably put a cap on license fees, say $100 million (but perhaps more). Lifescan middle management would be assuaged because they would be given a new finished product to manage, saving their collective careers (who wants to be the last guy there to turn off the lights), and in one swift motion Platinum would add, IMO, about $1.5 billion in value to their property. Then they could flip the asset, make a profit, and then never again do business with J&J.
But none of this will make the DECN trader/flipper shareholder base happy. Because a $100 million license arrangement means Mr. Berman stays in command, and the DECN shareholder base wants him gone, or dead, or in jail, because as everyone knows, it is all about share price. Actual business decisions are unimportant, and in today's world going against the prevailing grain, no matter how dumb these people are or sound, gets you shouted down.
And by the way, if I were a glass 90% empty sort of guy I would trash and then ignore my analysis above. Because as we have found out, a company CEO is a total incompetent and a dummy and perhaps a criminal if he doesn't direct all of his attention to share price and my analysis, or any analysis like it written by a businessman, is certainly not solely about share price.
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