Not a great investment strategy to just pick an es
Post# of 72436
The rest simply isn't true. I have corrected the 10% UPenn royalty estimate (the one where I qualified with "I think"
![](/images/icons/icon_wink.gif)
I didn't "gladly" do anything. I did some research and drew some conclusions from the numbers I found about typical royalty payments on licensing deals. I have summarized the data below from the following source:
https://pharmaintelligence.informa.com/~/medi...report.pdf
Phase 2 (Royalty:Number of cases)
0-5%: 26
5-10%: 19
10-15%: 16
15-20%: 10
20-25%: 1
>25%: 1
Phase 3 (Royalty:Number of cases)
0-5%: 11
5-10%: 12
10-15%: 8
15-20%: 10
20-25%: 4
>25%: 1
Immunology/Inflammation Specific (Royalty:Number of cases)
0-5%: 9
5-10%: 8
10-15%: 4
15-20%: 1
20-25%: NA
>25%: 1
I liked Mo's forecast of things to come but I think he actually grabbed his deal numbers from ones I posted earlier. I don't remember specifying an exact royalty percentage. He picked 15% and after investigating it looks a bit high after reviewing the numbers above. This is particularly true considering there are still 1.5-3 percentage points that will go to UPenn. We also are not in a strong bargaining position.
Those are my reasons and all the data from which I reasoned them. Anyone is free to do what they like with them. I am very interested if anyone has any data to the contrary that would suggest a 15% royalty is likely.
And yes, I feel his stock price and revenue numbers are a bit high (2-3x) but that's all raw speculation. We're going much higher from here with a deal. How high is what we're trying to figure out. If I said we're going to $1-2 or $0.70-$1.50 on a deal instead of $2-4 does that make me an "agenda" pusher? Do any of those estimates change whether you should or shouldn't own IPIX if you think a deal is coming? No.
That's two points of DD for me and nothing but "agenda" from you. Thanks for the contributions.
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