Not a great investment strategy to just pick an es
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Posted On: 02/10/2019 10:14:50 AM
Not a great investment strategy to just pick an estimate and then make no effort to back the number up with data AND ignore presented data indicating the contrary.
The rest simply isn't true. I have corrected the 10% UPenn royalty estimate (the one where I qualified with "I think"
through 10-Q due diligence and found that it was significantly lower than the 5% stated by Smokenhot (the guy who misread the 10-Q and was smug about doing so). It will be 1.5-3% depending on which indication and the classification (drug vs medical device) of that indication.
I didn't "gladly" do anything. I did some research and drew some conclusions from the numbers I found about typical royalty payments on licensing deals. I have summarized the data below from the following source:
https://pharmaintelligence.informa.com/~/medi...report.pdf
Phase 2 (Royalty:Number of cases)
0-5%: 26
5-10%: 19
10-15%: 16
15-20%: 10
20-25%: 1
>25%: 1
Phase 3 (Royalty:Number of cases)
0-5%: 11
5-10%: 12
10-15%: 8
15-20%: 10
20-25%: 4
>25%: 1
Immunology/Inflammation Specific (Royalty:Number of cases)
0-5%: 9
5-10%: 8
10-15%: 4
15-20%: 1
20-25%: NA
>25%: 1
I liked Mo's forecast of things to come but I think he actually grabbed his deal numbers from ones I posted earlier. I don't remember specifying an exact royalty percentage. He picked 15% and after investigating it looks a bit high after reviewing the numbers above. This is particularly true considering there are still 1.5-3 percentage points that will go to UPenn. We also are not in a strong bargaining position.
Those are my reasons and all the data from which I reasoned them. Anyone is free to do what they like with them. I am very interested if anyone has any data to the contrary that would suggest a 15% royalty is likely.
And yes, I feel his stock price and revenue numbers are a bit high (2-3x) but that's all raw speculation. We're going much higher from here with a deal. How high is what we're trying to figure out. If I said we're going to $1-2 or $0.70-$1.50 on a deal instead of $2-4 does that make me an "agenda" pusher? Do any of those estimates change whether you should or shouldn't own IPIX if you think a deal is coming? No.
That's two points of DD for me and nothing but "agenda" from you. Thanks for the contributions.
The rest simply isn't true. I have corrected the 10% UPenn royalty estimate (the one where I qualified with "I think"
through 10-Q due diligence and found that it was significantly lower than the 5% stated by Smokenhot (the guy who misread the 10-Q and was smug about doing so). It will be 1.5-3% depending on which indication and the classification (drug vs medical device) of that indication. I didn't "gladly" do anything. I did some research and drew some conclusions from the numbers I found about typical royalty payments on licensing deals. I have summarized the data below from the following source:
https://pharmaintelligence.informa.com/~/medi...report.pdf
Phase 2 (Royalty:Number of cases)
0-5%: 26
5-10%: 19
10-15%: 16
15-20%: 10
20-25%: 1
>25%: 1
Phase 3 (Royalty:Number of cases)
0-5%: 11
5-10%: 12
10-15%: 8
15-20%: 10
20-25%: 4
>25%: 1
Immunology/Inflammation Specific (Royalty:Number of cases)
0-5%: 9
5-10%: 8
10-15%: 4
15-20%: 1
20-25%: NA
>25%: 1
I liked Mo's forecast of things to come but I think he actually grabbed his deal numbers from ones I posted earlier. I don't remember specifying an exact royalty percentage. He picked 15% and after investigating it looks a bit high after reviewing the numbers above. This is particularly true considering there are still 1.5-3 percentage points that will go to UPenn. We also are not in a strong bargaining position.
Those are my reasons and all the data from which I reasoned them. Anyone is free to do what they like with them. I am very interested if anyone has any data to the contrary that would suggest a 15% royalty is likely.
And yes, I feel his stock price and revenue numbers are a bit high (2-3x) but that's all raw speculation. We're going much higher from here with a deal. How high is what we're trying to figure out. If I said we're going to $1-2 or $0.70-$1.50 on a deal instead of $2-4 does that make me an "agenda" pusher? Do any of those estimates change whether you should or shouldn't own IPIX if you think a deal is coming? No.
That's two points of DD for me and nothing but "agenda" from you. Thanks for the contributions.
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