#3 Possibility HIV BPs wants leronlimab to go aw

#3 Possibility
HIV BPs wants leronlimab to go away. They could lose revenue with mono approval, lose lose situation for them.
BPs not in HIV was not interested joining the HIV market.

If successful, the cancer angle changes everything, opening up to all BPs, with HIV as a side prize. BPs in HIV surely will start getting a little more concerned, especially as the market cap starts increasing and now with the mono p3 pivotal trial in 2019. With a $150M market cap, they might feel comfortable now watching and waiting, knowing they possibly could jump in with a 10x offer to market cap.

Cancer is not priced in yet, since it has a very low success rate in phase 2, as low as 3%. The share price did not react at all to the acquisition or announcing the TNBC trial approval. With some good CTC numbers, we should see some share price escalation to reflect the higher probability of success in phase 2. I’m looking forward to this happening!

https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archive...cess-rates

Quote:

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A closer look at the data, though, tells an even more different story. That overall POS figure is heavily dragged down by low success rates in oncology. Of the 41040 total pathways in the set, 17368 are for oncology (note that the same drug tried against two different types of cancer will show as two different pathways). The POS of everything outside of oncology is 20.9%, which the POS in oncology itself is 3.4%. If you look at lead indications, instead of all indications, the POS goes up overall (which is in line with earlier studies). But the Phase 2 to Phase 3 transition rate actually goes down a bit, interestingly. Oncology is still the lowest of bunch.

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