Kim Jong Un Extends Peace Overture to U.S. -- 4th
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Posted On: 01/01/2019 9:50:03 PM
Kim Jong Un Extends Peace Overture to U.S. -- 4th Update
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un offered a new peace overture in his New Year's address, saying his country is refraining from producing nuclear weapons, a gesture some experts interpreted as a potential opening for resuming talks with President Trump.
His address comes at an important juncture in Washington's relations with Pyongyang. While North Korea has refrained from nuclear testing and missile launches since Mr. Trump's Singapore meeting with Mr. Kim in June, no discernible progress has occurred since then.
Experts have long pored over Mr. Kim's annual New Year's speeches for clues on where his secretive regime might be headed.
His declaration was the first of its kind from Pyongyang in a quarter-century, said Robert Carlin, a former U.S. intelligence analyst who has been involved in negotiations with North Korea.
"I am confident that the U.S. will probe this and unpack what the North Koreans mean," Mr. Carlin said. "It could provide an opening for progress."
Other veterans of North Korea talks said Mr. Kim was trying to set the stage for a drawn-out process in which he received some relief from sanctions at the start, while still hanging on to his nuclear arsenal.
"Kim extended an olive branch, but with very sharp thorns," said Bruce Klingner, a senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation and former Central Intelligence Agency analyst. "The message to Trump is to come to another summit if he wants to salvage his claimed denuclearization success, but be prepared to deal."
On Tuesday, Mr. Trump tweeted, "I also look forward to meeting with Chairman Kim who realizes so well that North Korea possesses great economic potential!"
U.S. officials were frustrated when North Korea called off talks that had been planned for November with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.
With the two sides seemingly far apart about the pace of North Korea's potential denuclearization efforts -- and when Pyongyang would get sanctions relief from the U.S. in return -- no date for a summit has been set.
A big question is whether U.S. officials will try to hammer out understandings with their North Korean counterparts that could be codified at a future summit, or whether the next meeting will be a freewheeling affair at the highest level with little agreed on in advance, similar to the Singapore meeting.
Former officials who are hopeful for progress focused on Mr. Kim's statement that his regime "would neither make and test nuclear weapons any longer" nor "proliferate them."
Robert Einhorn, a former U.S. official who negotiated with North Korea on its missile programs, said the formulation Mr. Kim used may signal that Pyongyang is prepared to agree to a freeze on the production of fissile material for nuclear weapons and a ban on selling nuclear weapons and material to other countries.
"While falling short of complete elimination of nuclear weapons and ignoring the ballistic-missile issue, these measures, if implemented faithfully, would constitute an important interim step" toward the denuclearization goal set in Singapore, Mr. Einhorn said.
Other former U.S. officials were more skeptical, saying North Korea was pursuing longstanding negotiating objectives.
"Sure, it's an opening," said Joseph Yun, a former State Department special representative for North Korea policy. "But the entry price just got higher -- sanctions relief, including the reopening of Kaesong Industrial Complex and Mount Kumgang tours."
Mr. Kim noted in his address that he was eager to see a return of South Korean firms at the industrial park and a resumption of tourism at his Kumgang resort, which would bring in foreign currency the North might use for domestic projects, including military programs.
A State Department official said the agency had no comment on the speech.
U.S. officials will likely try to determine whether Mr. Kim's remarks mean he is freezing production of fissile material for nuclear weapons, and not just the assembly of nuclear warheads and bombs, which would be impossible to verify without inspections.
North Korea has said it is open to decommissioning its Yongbyon nuclear site -- where it has the infrastructure to enrich uranium and produce plutonium -- in return for U.S. concessions. U.S. intelligence also believes North Korea has a clandestine uranium-enrichment facility at another site.
Mr. Pompeo told Congress in July that North Korea was still producing fissile material.
While North Korea asserts it is prepared to eliminate its nuclear-weapons arsenal and the programs to make them, Mr. Kim noted in his address that he still wants to use nuclear power to produce electricity.
Current and former officials have also focused on another sentence in Mr. Kim's address: the assertion that if the U.S. doesn't ease its economic-sanctions campaign, North Korea may find a "new path" to defend its sovereignty.
Gary Samore, who was a senior National Security Council aide under President Obama, said the phrasing implies that the diplomatic process wouldn't immediately collapse if North Korea doesn't obtain sanctions relief.
Other experts said North Korea wouldn't hesitate to take steps that might endanger the talks and has cheated on agreements before.
"North Korea will continue to sharpen its nuclear and its military capabilities, depending on how well denuclearization negotiations with the U.S. go," wrote Shin Beom-chul, a former senior adviser to the South Korean Foreign and Defense ministries. "If the talks go well, there's a high chance North Korea will freeze its nuclear capabilities, but if talks don't go well, North Korea will continue to produce nuclear weapons and fissile material."
In another section of his speech, the North Korean leader demanded South Korea refrain from holding further military exercises with the U.S. -- a request that appears aimed at driving a wedge between Seoul and Washington and undermining the two allies' military preparedness.
"Given that North and South committed themselves to advancing along the road of peace and prosperity," Mr. Kim said, "joint military exercises with foreign forces...should no longer be permitted and the introduction of war equipment including strategic assets from outside should completely be suspended."
Seoul and Washington suspended military exercises as they engaged in diplomatic talks with North Korea throughout 2018. But military analysts have warned that continued suspension of the exercises would hurt the allies' ability to deter North Korean aggression.
One gesture Mr. Kim underscored was his hope for another summit meeting. "I am ready to meet the U.S. president again anytime."
Dow Jones Newswires
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un offered a new peace overture in his New Year's address, saying his country is refraining from producing nuclear weapons, a gesture some experts interpreted as a potential opening for resuming talks with President Trump.
His address comes at an important juncture in Washington's relations with Pyongyang. While North Korea has refrained from nuclear testing and missile launches since Mr. Trump's Singapore meeting with Mr. Kim in June, no discernible progress has occurred since then.
Experts have long pored over Mr. Kim's annual New Year's speeches for clues on where his secretive regime might be headed.
His declaration was the first of its kind from Pyongyang in a quarter-century, said Robert Carlin, a former U.S. intelligence analyst who has been involved in negotiations with North Korea.
"I am confident that the U.S. will probe this and unpack what the North Koreans mean," Mr. Carlin said. "It could provide an opening for progress."
Other veterans of North Korea talks said Mr. Kim was trying to set the stage for a drawn-out process in which he received some relief from sanctions at the start, while still hanging on to his nuclear arsenal.
"Kim extended an olive branch, but with very sharp thorns," said Bruce Klingner, a senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation and former Central Intelligence Agency analyst. "The message to Trump is to come to another summit if he wants to salvage his claimed denuclearization success, but be prepared to deal."
On Tuesday, Mr. Trump tweeted, "I also look forward to meeting with Chairman Kim who realizes so well that North Korea possesses great economic potential!"
U.S. officials were frustrated when North Korea called off talks that had been planned for November with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.
With the two sides seemingly far apart about the pace of North Korea's potential denuclearization efforts -- and when Pyongyang would get sanctions relief from the U.S. in return -- no date for a summit has been set.
A big question is whether U.S. officials will try to hammer out understandings with their North Korean counterparts that could be codified at a future summit, or whether the next meeting will be a freewheeling affair at the highest level with little agreed on in advance, similar to the Singapore meeting.
Former officials who are hopeful for progress focused on Mr. Kim's statement that his regime "would neither make and test nuclear weapons any longer" nor "proliferate them."
Robert Einhorn, a former U.S. official who negotiated with North Korea on its missile programs, said the formulation Mr. Kim used may signal that Pyongyang is prepared to agree to a freeze on the production of fissile material for nuclear weapons and a ban on selling nuclear weapons and material to other countries.
"While falling short of complete elimination of nuclear weapons and ignoring the ballistic-missile issue, these measures, if implemented faithfully, would constitute an important interim step" toward the denuclearization goal set in Singapore, Mr. Einhorn said.
Other former U.S. officials were more skeptical, saying North Korea was pursuing longstanding negotiating objectives.
"Sure, it's an opening," said Joseph Yun, a former State Department special representative for North Korea policy. "But the entry price just got higher -- sanctions relief, including the reopening of Kaesong Industrial Complex and Mount Kumgang tours."
Mr. Kim noted in his address that he was eager to see a return of South Korean firms at the industrial park and a resumption of tourism at his Kumgang resort, which would bring in foreign currency the North might use for domestic projects, including military programs.
A State Department official said the agency had no comment on the speech.
U.S. officials will likely try to determine whether Mr. Kim's remarks mean he is freezing production of fissile material for nuclear weapons, and not just the assembly of nuclear warheads and bombs, which would be impossible to verify without inspections.
North Korea has said it is open to decommissioning its Yongbyon nuclear site -- where it has the infrastructure to enrich uranium and produce plutonium -- in return for U.S. concessions. U.S. intelligence also believes North Korea has a clandestine uranium-enrichment facility at another site.
Mr. Pompeo told Congress in July that North Korea was still producing fissile material.
While North Korea asserts it is prepared to eliminate its nuclear-weapons arsenal and the programs to make them, Mr. Kim noted in his address that he still wants to use nuclear power to produce electricity.
Current and former officials have also focused on another sentence in Mr. Kim's address: the assertion that if the U.S. doesn't ease its economic-sanctions campaign, North Korea may find a "new path" to defend its sovereignty.
Gary Samore, who was a senior National Security Council aide under President Obama, said the phrasing implies that the diplomatic process wouldn't immediately collapse if North Korea doesn't obtain sanctions relief.
Other experts said North Korea wouldn't hesitate to take steps that might endanger the talks and has cheated on agreements before.
"North Korea will continue to sharpen its nuclear and its military capabilities, depending on how well denuclearization negotiations with the U.S. go," wrote Shin Beom-chul, a former senior adviser to the South Korean Foreign and Defense ministries. "If the talks go well, there's a high chance North Korea will freeze its nuclear capabilities, but if talks don't go well, North Korea will continue to produce nuclear weapons and fissile material."
In another section of his speech, the North Korean leader demanded South Korea refrain from holding further military exercises with the U.S. -- a request that appears aimed at driving a wedge between Seoul and Washington and undermining the two allies' military preparedness.
"Given that North and South committed themselves to advancing along the road of peace and prosperity," Mr. Kim said, "joint military exercises with foreign forces...should no longer be permitted and the introduction of war equipment including strategic assets from outside should completely be suspended."
Seoul and Washington suspended military exercises as they engaged in diplomatic talks with North Korea throughout 2018. But military analysts have warned that continued suspension of the exercises would hurt the allies' ability to deter North Korean aggression.
One gesture Mr. Kim underscored was his hope for another summit meeting. "I am ready to meet the U.S. president again anytime."
Dow Jones Newswires
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