Quote:There was too much science in them.
LOL! There was too much supposition, speculation, conspiracy theorizin' and too few facts, is all. You Tube knows that when they see it and so do I.
Quote:The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) officially declared that Kennedy's plane had crashed into the Atlantic Ocean off the coast of Martha's Vineyard; the probable cause of the crash was "[Kennedy]'s failure to maintain control of the airplane during a descent over water at night, which was a result of spatial disorientation".
[1] Kennedy was not qualified to fly his plane by "instruments only". The crash occurred in conditions not legally requiring such qualification. Other pilots besides Kennedy flying similar routes on the night of the accident reported no visual horizon due to haze.[1]
Possible contributing factors[edit]
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Haze and visibility
Atmospheric conditions along Kennedy's flight path on the night of the crash were occasionally hazy, which can lead to spatial disorientation for pilots. The weather was officially listed as "visual meteorological conditions" (VMC), which allowed Kennedy to fly under Visual Flight Rules (VFR) rather than Instrument Flight Rules (IFR), as he lacked an instrument rating.
The visibility was very poor in Essex County, New Jersey, and airports along Kennedy's flight path reported visibilities between 5 and 8 miles with haze and a few clouds. Some pilots flying similar routes as Kennedy on the night of the accident reported no visual horizon over water because of haze. Also, the NTSB reported on one pilot who cancelled a similar flight that evening due to "poor" weather. The conditions near the crash site were: "Clear skies at or below 12,000 feet; visibility 10 miles".[1]
Pilot experience
Kennedy first obtained his private pilot license in 1998, and received "high performance airplane" and "complex airplane" endorsements two months before the crash.[1] His estimated total flight experience before the crash was about 310 hours, of which 55 hours were at night. His estimated flight time in the accident airplane was about 36 hours, of which about 9.4 hours were at night.
Approximately 3 hours of that flight time were without a Certified Flight Instructor (CFI) on board, and only 48 minutes of that time was flown at night, which included a night landing.[1]
It is not clear how much of his total flight experience was in the plane type that crashed or in Kennedy's other, more basic plane, the Cessna Skylane 182. Fifteen months before the crash, Kennedy had flown about 35 flights either to or from northern New Jersey and the Martha's Vineyard area. Kennedy flew more than 17 of these legs without a CFI on board, including at least five at night. His last known flight in his airplane without a CFI on board happened two months before the crash.[1]
Pilot training
The CFI who prepared Kennedy for his private pilot checkride stated that he had "very good" flying skills for his level of experience.[15] Four months before the crash, Kennedy passed the FAA's written airplane instrument examination and later enrolled in an instrument rating course. He continued to receive flight instruction in New Jersey in his plane, including flights from CDW to MVY.
His instructors said Kennedy required help working the rudder pedals to taxi and land the plane because of his ankle injury.[15]
During a training flight at night under instrument conditions, his instructor stated that Kennedy had the ability to fly the airplane without a visible horizon but may have had difficulty performing additional tasks under such conditions.
He also stated that the pilot was not ready for an instrument evaluation, and needed additional training. The instructor at the time of the crash was not aware that Kennedy would be flying in those conditions without an instructor on board. The CFI further stated that he had talked to Kennedy on the night of the accident and offered to fly with him that night. He stated that Kennedy had the capability to conduct a night flight to Martha's Vineyard as long as a visible horizon existed.[16]
Psychological stress
The NTSB suggested that Kennedy's marriage may have contributed to a source of stress by the time of the crash.[17] Additionally, Kennedy's magazine, George, was in serious financial trouble.[18] According to the Aeronautical Information Manual (AIM): "stress from everyday living can impair pilot performance, often in subtle ways. Distractions can so interfere with judgment that unwarranted risks are taken, such as flying into deteriorating weather conditions to keep on schedule."
Pilot distraction
From 8:49 p.m., about 10 minutes after departure, and for a 5 minute period lasting until 8:54 p.m., Kennedy's plane flew in the same vicinity as American Airlines Flight 1484, a Fokker 100, which was on approach to Westchester County Airport (HPN).[1] The Traffic collision avoidance system (TCAS) sounded on the Fokker 100, leading to some discussion between the Fokker and the New York approach controller (ATC).
However, the interaction ended with American Airlines Flight 1484 reporting to ATC that they believe the other plane was a Piper and that the TCAS warning was resolved. No corrective action was reported to have been taken by ATC nor American Airlines Flight 1484.[1] It is not known if Kennedy was aware of, or distracted by, the incident.
Late departure
The flight was originally scheduled for daylight hours, but had to be postponed after Kennedy's sister-in-law was delayed at work. Heavy traffic further delayed Kennedy's flight and pushed it back until after dark. Originally planned to depart at 6:00 p.m., Kennedy's plane departed at 8:39 p.m. instead, nearly a half-hour past sunset. At the time of the takeoff, the moon was just above the horizon and provided very little illumination.
No flight plan or request for help
Kennedy never received a weather briefing or filed a flight plan with any Flight Service Station. Except for the take-off portion of his flight, Kennedy did not contact any air traffic controllers; during the flight, he never requested help or declared an emergency.[19] Under the conditions of his flight, Kennedy was not required to file a flight plan, and because he did not, no one knew his exact route or expected time of his arrival. According to the Weather Service International, as reported in the investigation by the National Transportation Safety Board, Kennedy made two weather requests before taking off. The information he was provided indicated that visibility ranged from 10 miles along his route to four miles at Martha's Vineyard.[20]
Flight over featureless, open water
Shortly after passing Point Judith, Rhode Island, Kennedy's plane headed directly towards Martha's Vineyard. Instead of following the coastline of Rhode Island Sound and Buzzards Bay, which would have provided visible lights on the ground, Kennedy chose the shorter, direct path over a 30-mile (50 km) open stretch of water.[21] According to the FAA Airplane Flying Handbook, crossing large bodies of water at night may be very hazardous, not only from the standpoint of ditching in the water, but also because the featureless horizon visually blends with the water, in which case depth perception and orientation become difficult.
Foot injury
Six weeks before the crash, Kennedy had fractured his left ankle in a paragliding accident over the Memorial Day weekend. He had surgery and wore a cast which was removed just the day before the fatal flight. He still walked with a limp on the day of the accident.[22] During his interviews, Kennedy's orthopaedic surgeon stated that, at the time of the crash, he would have been able to apply the type of pressure that would normally be required to drive a car.
Incorrect radio frequencies
While the NTSB examined the wreckage, they soon discovered that both of Kennedy's radios had incorrect frequencies selected. Kennedy had accidentally selected 127.25 for Martha Vineyard's ATIS instead of 126.25; likewise, he selected 135.25 for Essex County ATIS, but it should have been 135.5. The NTSB declined to comment on the contribution this factor had in the crash, if any.[1]
