But dark clouds are gathering over the economic expansion

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Nov 29, 2018 at 1:40 AM 244

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But dark clouds are gathering over the economic expansion that is now in its ninth year and the second longest on record.
The goods trade deficit widened further in October, pressured by declining exports of soybeans, capital goods and automobiles, the Commerce Department said in another report on Wednesday.

WEAK HOUSING MARKET

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-econom...SKCN1NX1LU

New home sales tumbled in October, the latest indication that the housing market was softening because of higher interest rates, a third report showed.

Data released last week showed business spending on equipment weakening in October and it could remain tepid with Brent crude oil prices slumping by more than 30 percent from a four-year high above $86 in early October. Cheaper oil tends to hurt investment in the energy sector because of reduced profits.

General Motors Co (GM.N) said on Monday that it would cut thousands from its North American workforce, slash production and eliminate some slow-selling car models, which could have ripple effects on the domestic economy.

Growth estimates for the fourth-quarter are currently around a 2.5 percent pace. Economists expect GDP growth to slow further in 2019 as the fiscal stimulus fades and the effects of a bitter trade war with China as well as a strong dollar take their toll.

“Growth will slow in the near term,” said Gus Faucher, chief economist at PNC Financial Services in Pittsburgh. “A trade war remains the biggest downside risk.”

The third-quarter growth slowdown mostly reflected the impact of Beijing’s retaliatory tariffs on U.S. exports, including soybeans. Farmers front-loaded shipments to China before the tariffs took effect in early July, boosting second-quarter growth. Since then, soybean exports have declined every month, increasing the trade deficit.

Imports increased a bit faster in the third quarter than previously estimated while the drop in exports was much sharper. The resulting larger trade gap sliced off 1.91 percentage points from GDP growth in the third quarter, instead of the 1.78 percentage points reported last month. That was the most since the second quarter of 1985.

Imports were driven by strong domestic demand and a rush by businesses to stockpile before U.S. import duties, mostly on Chinese goods, came into effect late in the third quarter. .

Business spending on equipment rose at a 3.5 percent rate, instead of the previously reported 0.4 percent rate. That was still the slowest pace in two years. The moderation in business spending has been blamed on the import tariffs, which are increasing manufacturing costs for companies.

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