Let's keep the following in perspective. I hate
Post# of 40991
(Total Views: 295)
Posted On: 09/20/2018 4:10:57 PM
Let's keep the following in perspective.
I hate waiting more than most, but let's keep the following in perspective:
1. Young Company
2. Shell was a mess when taken over
3. Clean up takes time, money, work and creativity
4. Revolutionary product that requires a lot of hard core sole work to get early adopters in a staid and stodgy business model where change is like pulling hens teeth.
It takes time to build a brand.
But let's look at some numbers.
Approx 1000 dealers selling 100 cars a month (average sales for all dealers) = 100,000 cars a month - using a measly 5% sale thru rate that equals 60K units a year steady state - we are still in roll out phase (I contend 5% is worst case).
Private label - let's use AAA for giggles. 58M subscribers - lets use 1/10 of 1% sale thru rate - that's another 58K units steady state - again - worst case scenario.
With just those 2 numbers - sales are 118K units X $200 = $23.6M in revenue - using 40% profit = $9.4M.
Stock price at 20 times $9 = $180M/3B shares or 6 cents a share.
This is worst case scenario and may be 6-9 months away but better sell thru and another major sale of a private label or additional dealers rockets this to 10-20 cents in a heat beat. Sale thru rate of twice the assumptions essentially doubles the numbers.
Don't lose site of the prize because delivery of individual tasks takes time or is delayed.
The model is a winner - Steve Berman just needs to stay focused and continue to ignore us knuckleheads.
I hate waiting more than most, but let's keep the following in perspective:
1. Young Company
2. Shell was a mess when taken over
3. Clean up takes time, money, work and creativity
4. Revolutionary product that requires a lot of hard core sole work to get early adopters in a staid and stodgy business model where change is like pulling hens teeth.
It takes time to build a brand.
But let's look at some numbers.
Approx 1000 dealers selling 100 cars a month (average sales for all dealers) = 100,000 cars a month - using a measly 5% sale thru rate that equals 60K units a year steady state - we are still in roll out phase (I contend 5% is worst case).
Private label - let's use AAA for giggles. 58M subscribers - lets use 1/10 of 1% sale thru rate - that's another 58K units steady state - again - worst case scenario.
With just those 2 numbers - sales are 118K units X $200 = $23.6M in revenue - using 40% profit = $9.4M.
Stock price at 20 times $9 = $180M/3B shares or 6 cents a share.
This is worst case scenario and may be 6-9 months away but better sell thru and another major sale of a private label or additional dealers rockets this to 10-20 cents in a heat beat. Sale thru rate of twice the assumptions essentially doubles the numbers.
Don't lose site of the prize because delivery of individual tasks takes time or is delayed.
The model is a winner - Steve Berman just needs to stay focused and continue to ignore us knuckleheads.
(2)
(0)