Ok - my take is this. Winston and Mary are pretty
Post# of 40989
(Total Views: 275)
Posted On: 09/10/2018 7:56:36 AM
Re: reindeer830 #17060
Ok - my take is this. Winston and Mary are pretty confident in the share reduction as part of Q-3 so I am going to say that is a given.
In terms of Revenue, if he hits $1.2-$1.5M in revs for the Qtr with a 40-50% margin, then this would be a phenomenal Qtr because NONE of the AN and CM revenue is part of Q-3 - which sets up QA-4 as a "GROWTH" Qtr. We could see revs over $2M-$2.5M as the rollout gathers momentum.
If we get a $2M Q-4 with profit at 30% (not margin) but Earnings, then that would give us an ANNUAL run rate of $8M in revenue and profit of $2.4M. $2.4M in profit at 20-30 times earnings gives us .016 to .024 per share and that does not include a real possibility of at least one private label deal.
While Berman has not kept all of his commits - running a start as a one man band is very difficult and the number of things that have to be addressed daily are enormous and ever changing - I give him a little more leeway than most. I did this sort of thing in my past career with a small undercapitalized, cash flow starved electronics company and never did one day go according to a schedule I had set up the previous day. Too many issues come up day to day and every day there was at least one crisis or fire that had to be addressed, so I give him a little slack - many of the people criticizing him on a daily basis have no idea of what hell his life is everyday - JMHO.
In terms of Revenue, if he hits $1.2-$1.5M in revs for the Qtr with a 40-50% margin, then this would be a phenomenal Qtr because NONE of the AN and CM revenue is part of Q-3 - which sets up QA-4 as a "GROWTH" Qtr. We could see revs over $2M-$2.5M as the rollout gathers momentum.
If we get a $2M Q-4 with profit at 30% (not margin) but Earnings, then that would give us an ANNUAL run rate of $8M in revenue and profit of $2.4M. $2.4M in profit at 20-30 times earnings gives us .016 to .024 per share and that does not include a real possibility of at least one private label deal.
While Berman has not kept all of his commits - running a start as a one man band is very difficult and the number of things that have to be addressed daily are enormous and ever changing - I give him a little more leeway than most. I did this sort of thing in my past career with a small undercapitalized, cash flow starved electronics company and never did one day go according to a schedule I had set up the previous day. Too many issues come up day to day and every day there was at least one crisis or fire that had to be addressed, so I give him a little slack - many of the people criticizing him on a daily basis have no idea of what hell his life is everyday - JMHO.
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