DNC is a partisan organization, no more reliable i
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Posted On: 08/07/2018 12:03:50 PM
DNC is a partisan organization, no more reliable in its polling than the RNC
I did not pull my claim out of my ass:
I did not pull my claim out of my ass:
Quote:
An analysis of 145 polls nationally and in 16 states completed within one week of the election shows a number of interesting results. The magnitude of national and state survey errors was not far from historical levels; the more troublesome dynamic was that errors systematically overestimated Clinton’s vote margin against Trump, leading to parallel errors that did not catch a number of key states moving into Trump’s column.
Clinton won the national popular vote by two percentage points according to certified vote tallies compiled by David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report. Most individual surveys found Clinton holding a small single-digit edge over Trump, averaging to a three-point margin. Looking across individual national polls, the average difference from the final Clinton-Trump vote margin is 2.2 percentage points, much smaller than the level of error apparent when they were compared to preliminary vote results (3.4 points).
The National Council on Public Polls (NCPP for short) has analyzed the accuracy of national surveys dating back to the 1930s, using a metric called “candidate error,” which is the difference between the winning candidate’s margin over the losing candidate minus a poll’s margin, then divided by two.
The average candidate error in national polls for 2016 is 1.1, slightly lower than in 2012 (1.5) and just slightly higher than 2008 and 2004 (0.9 each) The overall size of errors this year is just below the average since 1992 (1.3) and about half the all-time average of 2.2. National poll error in the infamous 1948 election polls was nearly five times as large as 2016 (5 points).
The current estimate of candidate error in national polls is 1.7 (half of 3.4 above), slightly higher than 2012 and clearly larger than 2008 (0.9). The overall size of errors this year is a bit higher than the 1.3 average since the 1990s but below the all-time average of 2.2 and spikes in the early years, including a 5-point error in the infamous 1948 election.
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