people that believe in the science as the greatest
Post# of 72447
(Total Views: 325)
Posted On: 07/27/2018 8:21:09 PM
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people that believe in the science as the greatest to come down the pike and then turn right around and say that we should sell it just like any other piece of sh%% drug from a historical perspective
POS drugs don't get $3B-5B. 95+ percentile drugs do. Such a price would rank an IPIX acquisition among some of the largest pre-phase 3 deals.
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There is no doubt in my mind we have first-in-class drugs for the indications they have been tested for to date. If someone does not believe that, then that would be a major factor why they value it so much lower than me.
There is much that needs to occur before we can truly call something a first-in-class drug and value it as such. Just a short list:
Phase 3 completion (1-2 years + $15M-$80M in costs)
NDA submission and approval (505B 1 year from submission, normally more)
Marketing and ramp of revenue (2-5 years to get near peak revenue)
Avoid competitors
Avoid societal risks (elections, wars, etc.)
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Secondly, other than Humira
Just invoking the name of the most successful drug ever created is a mistake at this point and highlights that you are either off target or looking more than 10 years into the future. The sky may be very very blue for IPIX if you're willing to wait that long. Half of us won't be here then or we'll be too old to enjoy it.
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Fourth, many spout the historical viewpoint ... not those concentrating on the rear view mirror.
Pharma is very risk averse and the future is very uncertain. The western world is awash in debt and unfunded liabilities. The United States is in particularly bad shape and is schizophrenic in it's voting habits. There is no clear path forward. When your popular presidential candidates are Don Trump and Bernie Sanders, the fate of all industries rests on a knife-edge.
Pharma wants to double their money over five years, not swing for the fences on potential a decade away.
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I may be so off base it is laughable, but I feel extremely confident that my vision will be much closer to what occurs than those playing IPIX as a penny stock and looking at $3-4 as a great investment.
I can't speak for others but my $3B-5B equates to $15-$25/share. I consider that a great investment from my first shares around $3.50 and one for the books from $0.50.
I say all this as a raging bull on the IPIX pipeline. I'm just not the entire stampede that you are Pete. And for the record, I hope YOU are right and that I'm the negative nelly.
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