Question for the board in general regarding the fo
Post# of 72446
(Total Views: 383)
Posted On: 07/26/2018 8:37:41 PM
Question for the board in general regarding the following scenario:
If Prurisol P2b turns out as strong as many believe, IMO it will become the first choice treatment for Psoriasis and the biologics/Otezla will be only resorted to should Prurisol fail for a specific patient. This will be due to the greater safety, better quality of life factors, lower cost (most likely), and oral delivery. If this ensues and the life of the patent is extended to say 20 years due to the fast track path of Prurisol, and we say the avg yearly revenue of Prurisol over the life of the patent will be $7B/yr, then that would give a total revenue of $140B over the life of the patent.
If the above is correct, what percentage of the $140 does everyone expect IPIX to garner as the developer and sole risk taker thru the most challenging times of the clinical trials process? I ask as I have said it will be far in excess of $10B and my estimate has been shot down on other boards. Most others feel the BP that has only to market this superior product should get about 90% of the revenues and IPX will settle for crumbs.
If you don't want to make your estimates public, let me know in a PM and I will amass the data and report back. Please indicate the following (1) total cash/stock buyout for the P-Psoriasis indication now (2) large upfront payment now (specify amt) and backend percentage royalty payments per year (specify amt) and (3) same as number two but a low upfront payment now with higher backend royalty payments during the life of the patent and beyond.
My thinking is if the total revenues should be near $140B, IPIX should be getting a minimum of $50B.
Thanks for any responses.
If Prurisol P2b turns out as strong as many believe, IMO it will become the first choice treatment for Psoriasis and the biologics/Otezla will be only resorted to should Prurisol fail for a specific patient. This will be due to the greater safety, better quality of life factors, lower cost (most likely), and oral delivery. If this ensues and the life of the patent is extended to say 20 years due to the fast track path of Prurisol, and we say the avg yearly revenue of Prurisol over the life of the patent will be $7B/yr, then that would give a total revenue of $140B over the life of the patent.
If the above is correct, what percentage of the $140 does everyone expect IPIX to garner as the developer and sole risk taker thru the most challenging times of the clinical trials process? I ask as I have said it will be far in excess of $10B and my estimate has been shot down on other boards. Most others feel the BP that has only to market this superior product should get about 90% of the revenues and IPX will settle for crumbs.
If you don't want to make your estimates public, let me know in a PM and I will amass the data and report back. Please indicate the following (1) total cash/stock buyout for the P-Psoriasis indication now (2) large upfront payment now (specify amt) and backend percentage royalty payments per year (specify amt) and (3) same as number two but a low upfront payment now with higher backend royalty payments during the life of the patent and beyond.
My thinking is if the total revenues should be near $140B, IPIX should be getting a minimum of $50B.
Thanks for any responses.
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