Employment Situation
Released On 5/4/2018 8:30:00 AM For Apr, 2018
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Consensus Outlook
Following an unusually weak March, nonfarm payrolls are expected to resume much of their prior strength. April nonfarm payrolls are seen rising a very respectable 191,000. And movement is the call for the unemployment rate which is expected to dip 1 tenth to 4.0 percent which would increasingly point to full employment and the risk of wage inflation. Yet wage pressures aren't expected to appear in April's report with the monthly consensus for average hourly earnings at only 0.2 percent growth with the yearly rate seen holding steady at 2.7 percent. Private payrolls are expected to rise 190,000, the same as the nonfarm headline, with manufacturing payrolls expected to post another solid month, up 15,000. The workweek is seen unchanged at 34.5 hours and the labor participation rate coming in unchanged at 62.9 percent.
Prior Consensus Consensus Range
Nonfarm Payrolls - M/M change 103,000 191,000 145,000 to 255,000
Unemployment Rate - Level 4.1 % 4.0 % 3.9 % to 4.1 %
Private Payrolls - M/M change 102,000 190,000 150,000 to 250,000
Manufacturing Payrolls - M/M change 22,000 15,000 11,000 to 25,000
Participation Rate - level 62.9 % 62.9 % 62.8 % to 63.0 %
Average Hourly Earnings - M/M change 0.3 % 0.2 % 0.2 % to 0.3 %
Average Hourly Earnings - Y/Y change 2.7 % 2.7 % 2.6 % to 2.8 %
Av Workweek - All Employees 34.5 hrs 34.5 hrs 34.5 hrs to 34.5 hrs
Released On 5/4/2018 8:30:00 AM For Apr, 2018
< >
Consensus Outlook
Following an unusually weak March, nonfarm payrolls are expected to resume much of their prior strength. April nonfarm payrolls are seen rising a very respectable 191,000. And movement is the call for the unemployment rate which is expected to dip 1 tenth to 4.0 percent which would increasingly point to full employment and the risk of wage inflation. Yet wage pressures aren't expected to appear in April's report with the monthly consensus for average hourly earnings at only 0.2 percent growth with the yearly rate seen holding steady at 2.7 percent. Private payrolls are expected to rise 190,000, the same as the nonfarm headline, with manufacturing payrolls expected to post another solid month, up 15,000. The workweek is seen unchanged at 34.5 hours and the labor participation rate coming in unchanged at 62.9 percent.
Prior Consensus Consensus Range
Nonfarm Payrolls - M/M change 103,000 191,000 145,000 to 255,000
Unemployment Rate - Level 4.1 % 4.0 % 3.9 % to 4.1 %
Private Payrolls - M/M change 102,000 190,000 150,000 to 250,000
Manufacturing Payrolls - M/M change 22,000 15,000 11,000 to 25,000
Participation Rate - level 62.9 % 62.9 % 62.8 % to 63.0 %
Average Hourly Earnings - M/M change 0.3 % 0.2 % 0.2 % to 0.3 %
Average Hourly Earnings - Y/Y change 2.7 % 2.7 % 2.6 % to 2.8 %
Av Workweek - All Employees 34.5 hrs 34.5 hrs 34.5 hrs to 34.5 hrs
