I'm still debating whether now is the time to buy
Post# of 72446
(Total Views: 271)
Posted On: 04/08/2018 11:42:21 AM
I'm still debating whether now is the time to buy more or if it is better to wait for results. Let's talk about $10K which is ready to go in the brokerage account. Assume a much larger core position is already in place.
Take a scenario for Prurisol results...a little game theory if you will on a lazy Sunday morning.
1) I can buy now at $0.60 and assume all of the risk/reward.
2) I can buy the morning the Prurisol results are released. I receive alerts from Inno Pharma and watch the morning news/boards like a hawk.
Obviously, if Prurisol does poorly it's better to wait until after results to buy. What happens if results are good though? Say 40%PASI75@300mg with no SAEs drops on us. That solidifies Prurisol as superior to Otezla. This number would mean George's value of $10B for Prurisol is likely on target.
How far does the stock price run that morning though? There are a couple things going against it:
1) IPIX is not well-known. (Most eyes won't be on the news before the open)
2) IPIX is not on NASDAQ. (No institutional buying)
Will the stock run to $1.50? $2? $3? $5? I think it will take the market longer than 9:30am to value the stock higher than that.
$10B is about $70/share for CTIX. If I pay $5/share that is 12x on just Prurisol AFTER it has been 90% derisked. If I only pay $2/share that is 35x with little risk. Not as nice as getting the extra shares at $0.60 but certainly less risk.
So what are the upsides to waiting?
1) No Prurisol risk while still likely retaining a good upside on good results.
2) If Prurisol is bad, cheaper shares might be obtained for a Brilacidin deal.
What are the downsides to waiting?
1) Less leverage on good Prurisol results.
2) Small possibility of missing a monstrous short squeeze if there is hidden NSS that needs to cover.
2) The possibility that a Brilacidin deal is announced ahead of or in tandem with the Prurisol results.
Decisions, decisions. Anyone else pondering this conundrum?
Take a scenario for Prurisol results...a little game theory if you will on a lazy Sunday morning.
1) I can buy now at $0.60 and assume all of the risk/reward.
2) I can buy the morning the Prurisol results are released. I receive alerts from Inno Pharma and watch the morning news/boards like a hawk.
Obviously, if Prurisol does poorly it's better to wait until after results to buy. What happens if results are good though? Say 40%PASI75@300mg with no SAEs drops on us. That solidifies Prurisol as superior to Otezla. This number would mean George's value of $10B for Prurisol is likely on target.
How far does the stock price run that morning though? There are a couple things going against it:
1) IPIX is not well-known. (Most eyes won't be on the news before the open)
2) IPIX is not on NASDAQ. (No institutional buying)
Will the stock run to $1.50? $2? $3? $5? I think it will take the market longer than 9:30am to value the stock higher than that.
$10B is about $70/share for CTIX. If I pay $5/share that is 12x on just Prurisol AFTER it has been 90% derisked. If I only pay $2/share that is 35x with little risk. Not as nice as getting the extra shares at $0.60 but certainly less risk.
So what are the upsides to waiting?
1) No Prurisol risk while still likely retaining a good upside on good results.
2) If Prurisol is bad, cheaper shares might be obtained for a Brilacidin deal.
What are the downsides to waiting?
1) Less leverage on good Prurisol results.
2) Small possibility of missing a monstrous short squeeze if there is hidden NSS that needs to cover.
2) The possibility that a Brilacidin deal is announced ahead of or in tandem with the Prurisol results.
Decisions, decisions. Anyone else pondering this conundrum?
(4)
(3)Innovation Pharmaceuticals Inc (IPIX) Stock Research Links
The Ghost of Phteven. All posts my opinion and speculation only.