Obviously bashers steering the narrative does not help but this sentiment can't all be blamed on them.
I don't think it's that they are going to reformulate that has investors feeling less than enthusiastic. We know two things from the phase 2a Kevetrin trial. The first is that there is definitive evidence of p53 modulation in humans. This is very good. The second is that a steady delivery of the medicine, ideally through an oral form, will be the best way to achieve maximum efficacy while minimizing side effects.
There are a few reasons why I feel Kevetrin enthusiasm is diminished right now.
1) Phase 2a ended early. While this may be the prudent move to save money and time, it doesn't "feel" like a successful trial. This feeling has to be framed by the recent trial issues/outcomes as well. This early finish follows on the heals of the cancellation of the interim Prurisol look and a relatively weak B-OM "second half". The B-OM trial was largely a success but if the second half come close to the interim results the stock would have skyrocketed. I am optimistic about Prurisol but the fact remains that investors don't like it when an interim look is cancelled.
2) We didn't get one of these:
www.ipharminc.com/press-release/2016/11/16/cellceutix-reports-spleen-lesion-disappears-in-patient-with-metastatic-stage-4-ovarian-cancer-in-clinical-trial-of-anti-cancer-drug-kevetrin
That PR set expectations extremely high for all future Kevetrin announcements. Modulation of p53 just doesn't compare to that news we received three years earlier on a visceral level. Efficacy against tumors was not the goal of the phase 1 nor the phase 2a. If I'm honest though I hoped to see some efficacy and I know many other investors did as well. That was my mistake but it is what it is.
3) The share price stinks right now and there appears to be nothing the company can do about it short of signing a deal. We're hoping that the high-powered 300mg arm of Prurisol can prove to be an Otezla killer but aside from that we're going to auction with what we have. Hitting six-year lows while the NASDAQ biotech index has tripled over the same period is never good for morale. A lot of us were hoping this investment would have been on it's way by now. Mako/Rosen are largely to blame for this but patience is at a premium right now. I'm confident we will get our payout in the end but many retirements, including my own, have been put on hold and we're none to happy about it.
Enough of that. My impatience is making me crabby. Time step back, have a drink, and see what the team can do this quarter to get this rocket off the pad.
I don't think it's that they are going to reformulate that has investors feeling less than enthusiastic. We know two things from the phase 2a Kevetrin trial. The first is that there is definitive evidence of p53 modulation in humans. This is very good. The second is that a steady delivery of the medicine, ideally through an oral form, will be the best way to achieve maximum efficacy while minimizing side effects.
There are a few reasons why I feel Kevetrin enthusiasm is diminished right now.
1) Phase 2a ended early. While this may be the prudent move to save money and time, it doesn't "feel" like a successful trial. This feeling has to be framed by the recent trial issues/outcomes as well. This early finish follows on the heals of the cancellation of the interim Prurisol look and a relatively weak B-OM "second half". The B-OM trial was largely a success but if the second half come close to the interim results the stock would have skyrocketed. I am optimistic about Prurisol but the fact remains that investors don't like it when an interim look is cancelled.
2) We didn't get one of these:
www.ipharminc.com/press-release/2016/11/16/cellceutix-reports-spleen-lesion-disappears-in-patient-with-metastatic-stage-4-ovarian-cancer-in-clinical-trial-of-anti-cancer-drug-kevetrin
That PR set expectations extremely high for all future Kevetrin announcements. Modulation of p53 just doesn't compare to that news we received three years earlier on a visceral level. Efficacy against tumors was not the goal of the phase 1 nor the phase 2a. If I'm honest though I hoped to see some efficacy and I know many other investors did as well. That was my mistake but it is what it is.
3) The share price stinks right now and there appears to be nothing the company can do about it short of signing a deal. We're hoping that the high-powered 300mg arm of Prurisol can prove to be an Otezla killer but aside from that we're going to auction with what we have. Hitting six-year lows while the NASDAQ biotech index has tripled over the same period is never good for morale. A lot of us were hoping this investment would have been on it's way by now. Mako/Rosen are largely to blame for this but patience is at a premium right now. I'm confident we will get our payout in the end but many retirements, including my own, have been put on hold and we're none to happy about it.
Enough of that. My impatience is making me crabby. Time step back, have a drink, and see what the team can do this quarter to get this rocket off the pad.
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The Ghost of Phteven. All posts my opinion and speculation only.
