Hold till at least $0.25. Here is why? It will get
Post# of 2913
1) Ignore the OS. The float is very small. No one knows the float. The last reported float was like under 100M. From my 18 yrs of investment, if I had to take a wild guess, I will bet it is below 300M or maybe below 200M range. A good measure is when you see a stock moves 100% in one-day (not the trips though) with whatever the volume is, the float is likely around that number. In other words, a general rule of thumb is a $1 stock will become $2 when the entire float churns. That is not valid for trips, however.
2) For SPCL most people like myself are holding for long-term, so the real available float id getting smaller every day.
3) Then you have traders
who are buying and selling, taking their investment out and holding what they call the "free shares
" for the long haul. They are carrying no risk at this point as they got the investment out. My guess is as the pps keeps moving up this crowd will get more and more making the available float even smaller.
4) So the pps will move up much faster once it reaches $0.05 range
5) The company is doing a RS with clear intent for uplisting. The oS after the RS will be a tiny 18M and the float maybe 2-3 M shares
. After the RS and uplisting the stock will sky rocket and I for one to plan to hold it for very long time. I am hoping that it will become a long-term investment. That is my goal.
6) Ignore the revenue and don't even try to do XPEG multiple. Private companies which are Silicon Valley VC backed gets 100x-500x revenue valuation. Revenue right now is irrelevant.
7) What is relevant is their PROJECTED growth rate. That will be the key piece of information one has to look out for when it comes out after or during the Uplisting.
They are the market leader in this space now which is another key point for valuation. That's why Uber is > $65 Billion valuation now.
9) My guess is with 18M OS after the RS and Uplisting if they can get say $900M valuation, that will be put the pre-split pps of $0.50, 35X from here
10) I am thinking that is their goal. If they get $1B-$2B valuation, then at that point they can do a secondary and raise $200-$300M easy say at $100 a piece.
These are all my assumption as I work with Startups, and Fund raising on a daily basis. I am assuming that these are a bunch of serious professionals with high level of ethics NOT some pinky scammers. All things points to the fact that they are serious and trying to do it right.
Good Luck with whatever you do
Courtesy of Art