THE CASE FOR $.05 PER SHARE. Assumptions - Debt
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Posted On: 03/19/2018 8:50:55 AM
THE CASE FOR $.05 PER SHARE.
Assumptions - Debt minimal; Hexagon, Re-domicile and Delaware issues resolved; O/S Share $3B (assumes reduction of about 1.4B based on info published). A/R Collections also have to accelerate to re-invest cash to grow organically and not with debt.
Est. Rev Q-2 $2.5M; Q-3 $4.0M; Q-4 $6M - if he gets to $6M run rate faster then the model accelerates earlier.
$6m run rate annualized = $24M (looking forward basis)
Earnings - conservative est of 25% = $6M.
$6M @ 20XEarnings = $120M/3B = $.04P/S
$6M @ 30XEarnings = $180M/3B = $.06P/S
You can get there faster with more rapid revenue growth or better earnings %. One MAJOR contract will blow this scenario out of the water and accelerate the Price exponentially - assuming he CAN DELIVER the product - that could end up being a major constraint - nice problem to have but would have to get resolved quickly.
Again all contingent on getting some of the admin stuff DONE.
Assumptions - Debt minimal; Hexagon, Re-domicile and Delaware issues resolved; O/S Share $3B (assumes reduction of about 1.4B based on info published). A/R Collections also have to accelerate to re-invest cash to grow organically and not with debt.
Est. Rev Q-2 $2.5M; Q-3 $4.0M; Q-4 $6M - if he gets to $6M run rate faster then the model accelerates earlier.
$6m run rate annualized = $24M (looking forward basis)
Earnings - conservative est of 25% = $6M.
$6M @ 20XEarnings = $120M/3B = $.04P/S
$6M @ 30XEarnings = $180M/3B = $.06P/S
You can get there faster with more rapid revenue growth or better earnings %. One MAJOR contract will blow this scenario out of the water and accelerate the Price exponentially - assuming he CAN DELIVER the product - that could end up being a major constraint - nice problem to have but would have to get resolved quickly.
Again all contingent on getting some of the admin stuff DONE.
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