I like my list better -these analysts so often focus on just 1 aspect of the equation-and hopefully bigger companies have learned a lesson after singlehandedly each greedily tried to capture the increased 2011 market by ridiculously ramping up marginal supplies to costs well over 100/ton

money supply,Australian export tax and thus reduced Australian production and investment,India becoming an importer,Japan rebuilding etc will all factor into prices

Everything seems to be positive for iron outlook now-what a change from summer 2012

1)Chinese PMI above 50 since August

2)Countries competing w each other to see who can loosen money supply the most US 3 trill,Japan 1.5 trill,Europe 2 trill,China ..

3)new as of summer 2012 Australian export tax of 30%-that had not been fully taken into account by analysts imo

4)USA economy said to be improving

5) 3rd largest economy- iron deficient Japan- will need a lot of iron to start rebuilding the north

6)China apparently still putting limitations on Vales 350k ton ships

7)producers were cutting back on marginal production

As noted before India is now amazingly an iron importer-until recently were a large supplier for China and some for Japan-underline and black bold emphasis added

Ambar Timblo has no work. For the first time in six decades his family’s iron ore mines in India ’s western state of Goa are idle. A court-imposed ban on production drove away his biggest buyers in China and Japan .

“It will take me a decade to win back market share as there is tremendous uncertainty about supplies from India,” said Timblo, a London School of Economics graduate and a former national badminton player. “Our loss has been a gain for our rivals from other countries.”

Fomento Resources Pvt. , set up by Timblo’s grandfather in 1957 when Goa was a Portuguese colony, is among companies that together own 93 mines that were shut in the state after a probe found that mining had contaminated ground water and led to illegal logging.

The ban is the second by India’s Supreme Court following one in 2011 in southern Karnataka state that began eroding the nation’s credibility as a supplier, shoring up prices for the ore and handing additional sales opportunities to companies such as Rio Tinto Group Plc (RIO) and BHP Billiton Ltd (BHP) , Australia ’s two biggest iron ore exporters to China.

“ The drop in supplies from India has tightened the market and provides support to iron ore prices ,” said David Radclyffe , managing director of equity research at Nomura Holdings Inc. in London