You are getting closer to what I believe the number may be.
US Warranty should be viewed the same as Capoli and Scully Lemoine. They all are essentially manufacturers reps with their own client base.
Not one of these reps has firm orders in hand and the end of 2017. They have all just signed their agreements and are getting to know the product so they can try to promote and sell to their clients. That's why you don't find On4/Hexa/bSafeMobile on any of their websites at this time.
As is the case with many new additions to a mfg rep line there will be some early adapters but the sales process will be long as dealers will want to test units out and learn about the product before they attempt to sell it.
In the case of US Warranty I wouldn't expect volume orders to start until late Feb, early March and it will ramp gradually as USW couldn't possibly talk to all 800 dealers in one month with detailed information. Realistic initial numbers would be 40 dealers taking an average 20 units stocking order and then they will see how they sell. And I would be happy with that. As 2018 progresses perhaps they can sell up to 250 dealers but it all depends upon how early sales and DELIVERIES go. There will always be a number of dealers that just will not buy the product.
The unit price of the device is a problem IMO. I sat down with a Lexus dealer who buys aftermarket products for resell. He loved the product but balked at the price. $200 wholesale to him meant he would have to try and sell it at $399 and he figured there was no way he could do that. He admitted that the device may be a good LOSS LEADER to incentivize customers to buy a car.
Capoli and to a lesser extent Scully Lemonis are in same boat. They have sell customers on the product. There is no guarantee that they will sign up all their customers or get large stocking orders or more importantly follow up orders.
You can't extrapolate accurately a revenue figure from any of these mfg rep deals. Look at it again at the end of 2018 and then you can start forecasting numbers with better accuracy.
US Warranty should be viewed the same as Capoli and Scully Lemoine. They all are essentially manufacturers reps with their own client base.
Not one of these reps has firm orders in hand and the end of 2017. They have all just signed their agreements and are getting to know the product so they can try to promote and sell to their clients. That's why you don't find On4/Hexa/bSafeMobile on any of their websites at this time.
As is the case with many new additions to a mfg rep line there will be some early adapters but the sales process will be long as dealers will want to test units out and learn about the product before they attempt to sell it.
In the case of US Warranty I wouldn't expect volume orders to start until late Feb, early March and it will ramp gradually as USW couldn't possibly talk to all 800 dealers in one month with detailed information. Realistic initial numbers would be 40 dealers taking an average 20 units stocking order and then they will see how they sell. And I would be happy with that. As 2018 progresses perhaps they can sell up to 250 dealers but it all depends upon how early sales and DELIVERIES go. There will always be a number of dealers that just will not buy the product.
The unit price of the device is a problem IMO. I sat down with a Lexus dealer who buys aftermarket products for resell. He loved the product but balked at the price. $200 wholesale to him meant he would have to try and sell it at $399 and he figured there was no way he could do that. He admitted that the device may be a good LOSS LEADER to incentivize customers to buy a car.
Capoli and to a lesser extent Scully Lemonis are in same boat. They have sell customers on the product. There is no guarantee that they will sign up all their customers or get large stocking orders or more importantly follow up orders.
You can't extrapolate accurately a revenue figure from any of these mfg rep deals. Look at it again at the end of 2018 and then you can start forecasting numbers with better accuracy.
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