It seems to me that we're in a predictable cycle w
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Posted On: 10/18/2017 3:06:47 PM
It seems to me that we're in a predictable cycle where anticipation of news grows as we head for a weekend and continues through Monday, then tapers off over the middle of the week. One could trade on this cycle, selling at higher levels achieved on Monday, and buying at lower levels on Thursday.
Such action might be profitable most weeks, but the problem is, what if great news comes in after selling on Monday. As I see it, their is no guarantee that news couldn't come any day.
Many years ago a stock broker friend told me that companies try to put out good news early in the week, to get the best brokerage participation, but not necessarily on Monday's if the feeling is many broker's may be taking long weekends. Bad news they clearly like to dump after the close on Friday, and if possible on a 3 day weekend. I suspect what he said then is still the case, but in the electronic world we live in today, both good and bad news are rapidly viewed by the investing public.
I won't say that a company cannot plan when a clinical trial will end, but it does take time to organize the data once its unblinded, and I don't believe it can be timed to occur precisely on one day. The company certainly has some time to put together a proper release, so some degree of control can be taken, but I don't think a release would be delayed if it couldn't be made before the open on Monday or Tuesday, and I don't think it must come before the market opens. In that all the real work is being done in Israel, it wouldn't be a surprise to me if news came in a presentation there during the day, which probably would correspond with late night here.
I believe if you choose to trade the cycle, you risk being out when a tremendous gain is made on positive news and given today's low prices, you might have to pay 5 to 10 times the current price to get back into the stock.
Gary
Such action might be profitable most weeks, but the problem is, what if great news comes in after selling on Monday. As I see it, their is no guarantee that news couldn't come any day.
Many years ago a stock broker friend told me that companies try to put out good news early in the week, to get the best brokerage participation, but not necessarily on Monday's if the feeling is many broker's may be taking long weekends. Bad news they clearly like to dump after the close on Friday, and if possible on a 3 day weekend. I suspect what he said then is still the case, but in the electronic world we live in today, both good and bad news are rapidly viewed by the investing public.
I won't say that a company cannot plan when a clinical trial will end, but it does take time to organize the data once its unblinded, and I don't believe it can be timed to occur precisely on one day. The company certainly has some time to put together a proper release, so some degree of control can be taken, but I don't think a release would be delayed if it couldn't be made before the open on Monday or Tuesday, and I don't think it must come before the market opens. In that all the real work is being done in Israel, it wouldn't be a surprise to me if news came in a presentation there during the day, which probably would correspond with late night here.
I believe if you choose to trade the cycle, you risk being out when a tremendous gain is made on positive news and given today's low prices, you might have to pay 5 to 10 times the current price to get back into the stock.
Gary
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