RJA, I put up the post and info below to another
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Posted On: 09/30/2017 5:36:40 PM
RJA, I put up the post and info below to another person on a different message board about why packaged food and foodcommodities are down.
My take on packaged goods struggling is two fold.
First, the rise of Paleo, Keto and Mediterranean diets which want us to eat little processed food. Also these diets wan t us to stay away from higher density carbohydrate foods, grains, potatoes and beans. I feel this trend has peaked as well as in the Andrew Hecht article I posted, 3rd world countries are getting richer and that is now a plus for processed foods.
Canada is coming out with new food "Guiding Principles" in 2018. In it grains are in, meat is- "eat less of it" and sugar is out. I would not be surprised to see the US come out with similar guidelines in support of grains and less sugar.
https://www.foodguideconsultation.ca/guiding-...s-detailed
Second, big food processors rejected "Organic" food until relatively recently. I can guess this is mainly a result of the status quo. My example there is Genera Mills Cheerios. They were the first to have a major organic product and it was easy because all Oats are non GMO. They just had to change the additives. So, I go into Target to buy some and Target does not have a prominent display and on the box I had to search for the non GMO info. My thought was they wanted it to fail. Now most are getting into organic. MKC you will find a big display of "Organic" spices in all major grocery stores. Their stock is doing well.
So, both of those negatives are being neutralized. And a falling dollar will help exports for some packaged goods companies and well as grain exports.
As for RJA, I have seen so many negative wheat stories and now soy as South America has a drought is returning to the central part. Plus drought to south Europe, Ukraine, and Western Australia. Plus worker shortages, higher minimum wages and Diacambia damage. I really don't buy the world grain forecasts. If I am right, which may not be the case, lol, I look for a spike up when the fall actual harvest come in. If I'm wrong, I don't see much downside here.
I add, one negative is technology in farming. I feel that is minor from here, but might explain some of the fall to here, and will be of set by the above.
https://gis.ncdc.noaa.gov/maps/ncei/drought/global
https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/2...a/70002570
https://www.ecowatch.com/monsanto-dicamba-2468298141.html
http://news.sky.com/story/lucifer-heatwave-po...e-10974804
http://www.foodnavigator.com/Policy/Brexit-Fo...-shortages
http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/08/23/first-e...-clean-up/
http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-pol-sac-fa...story.html
My take on packaged goods struggling is two fold.
First, the rise of Paleo, Keto and Mediterranean diets which want us to eat little processed food. Also these diets wan t us to stay away from higher density carbohydrate foods, grains, potatoes and beans. I feel this trend has peaked as well as in the Andrew Hecht article I posted, 3rd world countries are getting richer and that is now a plus for processed foods.
Canada is coming out with new food "Guiding Principles" in 2018. In it grains are in, meat is- "eat less of it" and sugar is out. I would not be surprised to see the US come out with similar guidelines in support of grains and less sugar.
https://www.foodguideconsultation.ca/guiding-...s-detailed
Second, big food processors rejected "Organic" food until relatively recently. I can guess this is mainly a result of the status quo. My example there is Genera Mills Cheerios. They were the first to have a major organic product and it was easy because all Oats are non GMO. They just had to change the additives. So, I go into Target to buy some and Target does not have a prominent display and on the box I had to search for the non GMO info. My thought was they wanted it to fail. Now most are getting into organic. MKC you will find a big display of "Organic" spices in all major grocery stores. Their stock is doing well.
So, both of those negatives are being neutralized. And a falling dollar will help exports for some packaged goods companies and well as grain exports.
As for RJA, I have seen so many negative wheat stories and now soy as South America has a drought is returning to the central part. Plus drought to south Europe, Ukraine, and Western Australia. Plus worker shortages, higher minimum wages and Diacambia damage. I really don't buy the world grain forecasts. If I am right, which may not be the case, lol, I look for a spike up when the fall actual harvest come in. If I'm wrong, I don't see much downside here.
I add, one negative is technology in farming. I feel that is minor from here, but might explain some of the fall to here, and will be of set by the above.
https://gis.ncdc.noaa.gov/maps/ncei/drought/global
https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/2...a/70002570
https://www.ecowatch.com/monsanto-dicamba-2468298141.html
http://news.sky.com/story/lucifer-heatwave-po...e-10974804
http://www.foodnavigator.com/Policy/Brexit-Fo...-shortages
http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/08/23/first-e...-clean-up/
http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-pol-sac-fa...story.html
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