US coal exports are surging under Trump. Here's wh

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US coal exports are surging under Trump. Here's why it probably won't last

•U.S. thermal coal exports were up 58 percent in the first quarter from a year ago.
•Higher coal prices caused by a drop in production in China and disruptions are giving U.S. miners an opportunity to export more coal.
•Analysts say these temporary export spikes are to be expected, and U.S. coal exports are likely to decline over the long term.

.S. coal exports are rising this year, giving the fossil-fuel friendly Trump administration reason to cheer, but analysts believe the good times won't last.

The surge in exports doesn't herald a reversal of coal's fortunes, but a temporary blip to be expected every few years, according to experts. The latest spike is due to a temporary rise in coal prices that is opening a window of opportunity for miners.

Coal exports were up 58 percent in the first quarter from the same period last year, but analysts say the long-term trend is down.


"I don't think 2017 will be a typical year, but it might be a typical every fourth or fifth year. We'll get these strong years and we'll get these years of lower exports in between," said James Stevenson, senior director of IHS Markit's global coal practice.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts growth in coal exports will moderate in the coming months. Total exports are on pace to rise about 20 percent this year from 2016.



In the long-term, U.S. exports face multiple challenges. China is scaling back plans for new coal-fired power plants. India aims to produce more of the coal it consumes. South Korea's new president has plans to ween the country off coal.

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