The only way to properly value this company is to wait until they are generating revenue and use real numbers. Airline stocks have some of the least prestigious valuations of any sector, often trading just 9-12x net profit (not even EBITDA). On the other hand, a company like Amazon, which made half as much profit as Delta Airlines in 2016, trades with a market cap of $474 billion. Delta is the largest publicly traded airline in the world, but its market cap is only $37 billion.
So to those of you throwing around lofty valuations like $1.50/share based on what Sheryl said two years ago (when the O/S was way less), don't even think about it with the current share structure. Not even close. It's simple mathematics. There exists currently 9.44 billion O/S. Multiply that number times the share price, and you get the market cap. If USGlobal generates $100 million in net income (which will take years), the market cap should sit at around $1-1.2 billion, using an industry multiple. If the current O/S remains the same, we should expect about .10-.12/share in a few years from now. There's no easy way around the math. If they expand to 10 aircraft by the end of next year, there's no way they will generate enough profit to justify a $1B+ market cap. It takes time. Our problem as investors is that we've been through so much bullshit with Baltia that we're on our last leg, so every month that passes feels like an eternity.
One of you (who shall remain unnamed to prevent confusion, but feel free to respond) had mentioned previously that startups get a bump in valuation, so we should expect a higher relative value than an established industry leader or competitor. For example, we should expect to trade much higher than 9-12x the net profit. Even if that's the case, how much higher? 20x? 30x? And for how long? USGlobal is a new company only to those very few (perhaps a few hundred followers/investors) who are aware of Baltia. But to the rest of the potential investor crowd, this is the same company doing the same shit with the same agenda. It's just reality, and it's a grim outlook for those who anticipated $1/share someday. However, if you are buying stock now, there's little reason to think you won't make 10-15x your investment within 2-3 years if the Songbird acquisition goes through. For those who've been buying for years (myself since 2013), it's very difficult to take the blinders off and understand the reality of this company's situation. We still try to convince ourselves that $1/share is possible. Even .20/share is going to take a very long time to reach given what we presently know about USGlobal's plan for expansion and initial flights.
For those wondering how the SP can reach .30+ within a couple years, here's how it can happen. We are lucky to be invested in a company that does not want "Yes Men," so I am encouraged by the fact that we can discuss certain things here without sugar coating (e.g. realistic valuations). None of this is intended to disrespect those running USGlobal, but I'd bet a lot of money that if they want to get that billion-dollar market cap by the end of 2018, this is how they should do it, from most to least important:
1) Audit/name change - not much they can really do to expedite this. The audit is the single most important thing they can get done. The name change is the second most important thing they can get done. Last time I called IR, they said both were proceeding in a timely manner, which is good. I'll leave it at that.
2) Aggressive fundraising ($20M+ immediately, by the time the first revenue flight happens) for fleet expansion and training/administrative costs for crew and employees. Raising $1M at a time is ineffective, and there's no reason to wait for the R/S given the nature of the agreement with preferred stock, which is blind to the share price. Sell the company as a new direction for the airline industry. Tech stocks get outcompeted every year by a new, better competitor that simply raised a ton of money from VCs by selling equity. And even then, many of them fail. USGlobal should be a glamorous airline, not a non-compliant penny stock (which is how it looks to serious investors). To the public, it continues to look like a scam. There's no way around this unless they show the public how they're operating as a real company.
3) Expand the fleet well past 10 planes within the first couple years. Unless the goal is to keep this company small, the fleet needs to grow to 40/50 very quickly . Ten planes, of which a few will be for charter flights, won't generate significant revenue. Virgin has 65 aircraft, and while it's a private company, it isn't unreasonable to suggest they're worth at least a few $billion. USGlobal will be competing with airlines that do not operate as friendly competitors. Delta, American, and United will literally end this company if they feel threatened. So how is USGL going to prevent that? EXPAND QUICKLY!
4) Reduce the O/S without a reverse split as much as possible. Igor's shares have to go. This isn't an option, it's a priority. This raises the value of each of our shares by about 10%.
5) Strengthen the BOD by capitalizing on their connections. If they want to share the wealth, they have to contribute. They need to be invested with more than their mouths.
None of this is rocket science.
So to those of you throwing around lofty valuations like $1.50/share based on what Sheryl said two years ago (when the O/S was way less), don't even think about it with the current share structure. Not even close. It's simple mathematics. There exists currently 9.44 billion O/S. Multiply that number times the share price, and you get the market cap. If USGlobal generates $100 million in net income (which will take years), the market cap should sit at around $1-1.2 billion, using an industry multiple. If the current O/S remains the same, we should expect about .10-.12/share in a few years from now. There's no easy way around the math. If they expand to 10 aircraft by the end of next year, there's no way they will generate enough profit to justify a $1B+ market cap. It takes time. Our problem as investors is that we've been through so much bullshit with Baltia that we're on our last leg, so every month that passes feels like an eternity.
One of you (who shall remain unnamed to prevent confusion, but feel free to respond) had mentioned previously that startups get a bump in valuation, so we should expect a higher relative value than an established industry leader or competitor. For example, we should expect to trade much higher than 9-12x the net profit. Even if that's the case, how much higher? 20x? 30x? And for how long? USGlobal is a new company only to those very few (perhaps a few hundred followers/investors) who are aware of Baltia. But to the rest of the potential investor crowd, this is the same company doing the same shit with the same agenda. It's just reality, and it's a grim outlook for those who anticipated $1/share someday. However, if you are buying stock now, there's little reason to think you won't make 10-15x your investment within 2-3 years if the Songbird acquisition goes through. For those who've been buying for years (myself since 2013), it's very difficult to take the blinders off and understand the reality of this company's situation. We still try to convince ourselves that $1/share is possible. Even .20/share is going to take a very long time to reach given what we presently know about USGlobal's plan for expansion and initial flights.
For those wondering how the SP can reach .30+ within a couple years, here's how it can happen. We are lucky to be invested in a company that does not want "Yes Men," so I am encouraged by the fact that we can discuss certain things here without sugar coating (e.g. realistic valuations). None of this is intended to disrespect those running USGlobal, but I'd bet a lot of money that if they want to get that billion-dollar market cap by the end of 2018, this is how they should do it, from most to least important:
1) Audit/name change - not much they can really do to expedite this. The audit is the single most important thing they can get done. The name change is the second most important thing they can get done. Last time I called IR, they said both were proceeding in a timely manner, which is good. I'll leave it at that.
2) Aggressive fundraising ($20M+ immediately, by the time the first revenue flight happens) for fleet expansion and training/administrative costs for crew and employees. Raising $1M at a time is ineffective, and there's no reason to wait for the R/S given the nature of the agreement with preferred stock, which is blind to the share price. Sell the company as a new direction for the airline industry. Tech stocks get outcompeted every year by a new, better competitor that simply raised a ton of money from VCs by selling equity. And even then, many of them fail. USGlobal should be a glamorous airline, not a non-compliant penny stock (which is how it looks to serious investors). To the public, it continues to look like a scam. There's no way around this unless they show the public how they're operating as a real company.
3) Expand the fleet well past 10 planes within the first couple years. Unless the goal is to keep this company small, the fleet needs to grow to 40/50 very quickly . Ten planes, of which a few will be for charter flights, won't generate significant revenue. Virgin has 65 aircraft, and while it's a private company, it isn't unreasonable to suggest they're worth at least a few $billion. USGlobal will be competing with airlines that do not operate as friendly competitors. Delta, American, and United will literally end this company if they feel threatened. So how is USGL going to prevent that? EXPAND QUICKLY!
4) Reduce the O/S without a reverse split as much as possible. Igor's shares have to go. This isn't an option, it's a priority. This raises the value of each of our shares by about 10%.
5) Strengthen the BOD by capitalizing on their connections. If they want to share the wealth, they have to contribute. They need to be invested with more than their mouths.
None of this is rocket science.
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