Trump\'s policy toward Cuba: what will happen in the coming

Their policies will not take effect until the new regulations are in place, a process that, according to the White House Newsletter, "may take several months." A lot of things can happen during that time frame.

As soon as the official statement was made on June 16, the majority of the national opposition to Trump's policy toward Cuba awoke once more. In fact, he was already extremely active and eloquent before the date and place of Little Havana in Miami was announced on June 9. With the handling of the stage at the Little Havana event, Trump sought to convince those already convinced, not even including the rest of Florida - where most Cuban Americans oppose the blockade, or at least Obama's Make the blockage more flexible. The way Trump chooses carefully the events to spread his speech to the whole country, will not work. His rhetoric-the cold war,

However, Trump's policy is not yet fully defined. According to the White House Newsletter of June 16 on the policy towards Cuba, only in 30 days will the Treasury and Commerce Departments begin a process of issuing new regulations. Its policies will not take effect until the new regulations are established, a process that, according to the Newsletter, "may take several months." During that time frame many things can happen.

Because right now?

In order to assess the current situation we must go back in time. Trump had many issues on his national and international agenda in the first 100 days, and he could not deal with Cuba. This country is still very controversial. There are contradictions within your own party. A large number of Republican congressmen, politicians at the state and municipal level, as well as Republican voters, support Obama's policy and even want to go further in opening trade and travel and in many cases completely lift the blockade . This has been and remains a major stumbling block for Trump.

Only on May 3, (six months after his term began), Trump convened a special meeting on Cuba in the White House, including senior officials, Florida Republican Sen. Marco Rubio, and the Representative Diaz-Balart, who initially favored the breaking of diplomatic relations with Cuba and the closing of the US Embassy in Havana. At this meeting it became clear that high-level National Security and State Department officials wanted to continue Obama's policy. In fact, Rex Tillerson, Secretary of the State Department, during his confirmation hearing in Congress in January 2017, was rather ambiguous about any major changes in Obama's policy. In another hearing before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on June 13, Tillerson was equally confused about a major setback in Cuba's policy. According to some sources in the US press, Tillerson has privately expressed his support for Obama's policy.

At this meeting on June 3, the White House, HR McMaster, National Security Advisor and Reince Priebus, White House Chief of Staff, met with Trump and Rubio in a "top-down approach" To ignore the opposition. In this way, Trump handed over the task of drafting the policy to White House staff and the National Security Council whose head HR McMaster also agreed with the Trump / Rubio approach (instead of entrusting it to Secretary of Homeland Security John Kelley and Tillerson, of the State Department), with Marco Rubio and Diaz-Balart as the main advisors.

Now, how did Marco Rubio go from being the "Little Marco" - after Trump ridiculed him during the primaries, to be the "Great Marco", protagonist of the policy towards Cuba? The Senator is a member of the Congressional Intelligence Committee and was one of the few to acquit Trump during the Comey hearing in early June. Is this one of the reasons why Rubio was granted this privileged position? How indispensable will Rubio be in the coming months?

Trump's policy is the result of an agreement between hardliners and supporters of anti-blocking forces

Despite the desire of Rubio and of the Little Havana of Miami, followers of Batista, of breaking relations, this did not happen and nobody expressed its nonconformity. Even if Trump had earlier alluded to backing down on diplomatic relations, he did not announce the break even if it was the cornerstone of Obama's policy. This is very positive. To compensate for this, however, Trump has substantially stepped up rhetoric against Cuba and has implemented significant restrictions that reverse Obama's trade and travel initiative. This is your arrangement. However, now that Trump is back in Washington - and back to earth, he must face widespread opposition to his policy toward Cuba across the country, in diametrical opposition to Little Havana.

Some economic contradictions that the Trump administration must confront

One of the measures reversed concerns the right of Americans to travel to Cuba, insofar as they do so in one of the 12 established categories, including religious or cultural purposes. Obama relaxed this restriction by allowing Americans to do so in good faith. Under Trump's policy, they will have to prove it before they leave and travel as part of a group. This complicates matters, not only for US citizens, but also for the Treasury Department. How are you going to enforce this, especially at a time when Trump is looking to reduce this type of spending? According to White House sources authorized to inform journalists on anonymity, other categories of authorized travel will remain open to individuals.

In promoting Trump's policy, Rubio exemplifies that they are trying to enforce the promotion of private ownership of state - owned bed-and-breakfast establishments , rather than state-run hotels. However, if, within a few months, Trump's policy complicates travel to Cuba, how could these potential customers reach the B & B? Additionally, the powerful network hosting company, Airbnb, is not expected to accept this submissively, as well as major US airlines, or the gigantic online travel company Expedia, which has just concluded an agreement with Cuban hotels .

Also, what would the US Treasury do if American visitors were to enjoy an aperitif or a drink at the iconic Sloppy Joe's Bar or the equally emblematic Floridita in Old Havana, unaware that the two are Administered by the business group of the Cuban Armed Forces? If the Treasury foolishly applied the directive issued on June 16, the United States would be depriving American visitors of access to these milestones from the US presence in Havana before the Revolution.



While the new policy towards Cuba promoted by Rubio is destined to obtain the support of the Cuban-Americans. If GAESA also controls much of Cuba's finances, including remittances, Trump may inadvertently even face some Cuban-Americans seduced by his policy toward Cuba, as announced on June 16, but will soon wake up on discovering that it Goes against even their own family interests.

It is possible that Secretary of State Tillerson is not the only one in Trump's cabinet who appears to be at least in partial contradiction with the new policy. Recently, on May 17, 2017, following the May 3 White House meeting, Sonny Perdue, US Secretary of Agriculture, pledged support for the expansion of agricultural trade to Cuba during a Committee hearing Agricultural Chamber. For a long time Secretary Perdue has been a champion of the expansion of trade in agricultural products to Cuba, after expressing his support at his confirmation hearing in the Senate, as well as during his term as governor of Georgia, after the trip of one Delegation to Cuba.

GAESA also controls part of the new container terminal in Mariel, on the northwest coast of Cuba. Meanwhile, the ports of the United States Gulf Coast and the Port of Virginia have already signed letters of intent to work with this new terminal. What will they do?



Political inconsistencies

On June 16, Trump emphasized the need to strictly enforce US blockade legislation. No doubt he referred, inter alia, to the 1996 Helms-Burton Act, signed by President Bill Clinton. This expanded the block even more than its predecessor, the Torricelli Act of 1992, even doing so extra-territorial. The 1996 law punishes third countries that have commercial relations with Cuba, as has recently been seen, for example, by imposing a fine on Honda-Canada for negotiating with Cuba, thus defying Canada's sovereignty.

However, the Helms-Burton Act also stipulates that the US government can not enter into any agreement with Cuba while Fidel or Raul Castro are in power. Well, Raul Castro is Head of State. Does this mean that Trump is violating this point of the legislation? While this is a mocking question, the situation shows that Trump's policy is the result of an arrangement and that he is on the defensive, camouflaged behind his rhetoric. Perhaps the most obvious political contradiction is that if the Cuban regime is so nefarious - when it launched an attack to describe it, why does it maintain diplomatic relations and an embassy in Havana, and even invites Cuba to the negotiating table no matter how much it stinks Your hypocrisy?

On June 16, Trump stated something in order to point to Venezuela equally. Another case of flagrant interference in the internal affairs of a Latin American country, as it did with Cuba. The Organization of American States (which groups the 35 countries of the hemisphere except Cuba) met from June 19 to 21 in Cancun, Mexico. It is an ordinary session of all foreign ministers, in which the United States is represented by Secretary of State Tillerson. What would be the reaction of the Member States? Would Trump's arrogant outpouring of June 16 lead more countries against US interference in the region, thus gaining a boomerang effect upon his announcement?

It should be recalled that the unanimous opposition of Latin American and Caribbean nations over decades to US policy towards Cuba was one of the factors that pressured Obama to establish diplomatic relations with Cuba in December 2014. Language Body of Tillerson while listening to Trump during the presentation of June 16 in Miami, seems to indicate a reluctant approval of his new policy towards Cuba. Would he have in mind the Cancún meeting and what he could face as a result of Rubio's ill-advised policy toward Cuba? On June 18, it was announced that Tillerson would not be present at the OAS Summit in Cancun. He would be replaced by Kevin Sullivan, Acting Representative to the Organization of American States and Michael J. Fitzpatrick, Deputy Undersecretary of Foreign Affairs for the Andean Region, Brazil and the Southern Cone. It should be noted that at the Cancún Summit, the United States and its allies were unable to impose an interventionist resolution on Venezuela, the main objective of the empire. Is it possible that Trump's policy towards Cuba has been smuggled?

It's still time to act

As soon as Trump finished his speech, Engage Cuba, the main coalition against the blockade, with bipartisan political backing and business support at the national level, issued a statement that concluded: "Today was the speech. Tomorrow we will return to work. "This is today the main message of my words, as an initial reaction to Trump's policy. The United States forces, the business sector, the tourism industry, academics and educators, communities, politicians, popular sectors, still have several months to try to influence the situation in favor of greater openness to travel and Trade, with the aim of lifting the total blockade. This can be achieved by taking advantage of the contradictions of the Trump administration and its party, And drawing on the United States' majority opposition to the blockade. This is supported by peoples around the world who are in favor of Cuba's right to sovereignty and self-determination. They strongly oppose the attempt to interfere in Cuba's internal affairs in order to force "change" in accordance with the wishes of the United States.

Meanwhile, just hours after Trump's announcement, the Cuban government issued a strong statement indicating, as it has since 1959, that Cuba refuses to submit to US threats. The Government further stated that it is prepared to continue a respectful dialogue with the United States on matters of mutual interest on the basis of mutual respect. This option of sitting at the table would not have been possible if Trump had not been forced to reach an agreement and thus maintain diplomatic relations with Cuba. On the other hand, Cuba is well aware of US domestic policy, not pointing to Trump, but simply stating that the US President was badly advised.

On June 19, during a special press conference held in Vienna, where he was visiting, Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriguez passionately detailed the terrorist nature of the Cuban-Americans in Miami praised by Trump, for example one Involved "in an attack on President Fidel Castro Ruz in 1997. He paid tribute to a person who personally participated in the assassination of the well-known revolutionary fighter Frank País, also of his partner Raúl Pujol, and another time, Frank País's younger brother of only 19 years. The Cuban chancellor said: "It is an offense that our people will not be able to forget."



"I reiterate Cuba's willingness to continue respectful dialogue and cooperation on issues of mutual interest and to negotiate pending bilateral issues with the United States, based on equality and absolute respect for our independence and sovereignty." Bruno Rodriguez showed That there are no illusions about the US goal: "It is false to say that President Barack Obama made concessions to Cuba. He basically maintained the blockade of Cuba and tried to advance American interests, even to subvert the constitutional order in our country. "He stated that" these measures reinforce our patriotism, our dignity, our decision to defend by all means the National independence in the spirit of José Martí, Antonio Maceo and Fidel Castro Ruz. "

This situation in the face of a possible dialogue and the fact that the process will take several months, given the growing anti-blocking pressures, are the positive points. Otherwise, it would be a very somber June 16th.

* Arnold August , Canadian journalist and author of three books about Cuba. His most recent publication, Cuba-United States Relations. Obama and beyond, includes an analysis of the development of Trump's policy toward Cuba . (Come February, 2018, Editorial Oriente, Santiago de Cuba). Http://www.arnoldaugust.com/index.html