As a speculative bio play, this is one of the best
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Posted On: 06/28/2017 2:55:46 PM
As a speculative bio play, this is one of the best at this time, but I do not expect a significant run-up from here prior to July 13. Certainly in the absence of additional good news. Two concerns to note (amongst others):
NDA supportable data will likely require additional phase 2 (perhaps with the exception of B- ABSSSI) as well as phase 3 trials for all pipeline candidates. Going to a foam formulation for B-UP for instance, may also require an additional human trial. So as we all know - a partnership(s) is critical to avoid life support and move to solid pipeline development from here. The right partnership is not a certainty regardless as how most investors see it.
Secondly, with a MC under $100M, and an attractive pipeline market potential, I would not fault IPIX management (with Aspire) in considering a pharma buyout at 5-6 (yes, that low folks) that recognizes the additional R&D and risk required prior to a revenue stream. Principals become wealthy and it would make me - and most longs - very pleased. But it would virtually cut-out investors from the full market potential that may easily exceed $1B+ (i.e. 10-15). Argue the numbers, which are always a guess, but the concept is the same - management would make out handily for their vision, hard work and risk-taking while investors see a handsome profit, but far from what some now consider their long term prospects with IPIX stock. Just sayin'.
NDA supportable data will likely require additional phase 2 (perhaps with the exception of B- ABSSSI) as well as phase 3 trials for all pipeline candidates. Going to a foam formulation for B-UP for instance, may also require an additional human trial. So as we all know - a partnership(s) is critical to avoid life support and move to solid pipeline development from here. The right partnership is not a certainty regardless as how most investors see it.
Secondly, with a MC under $100M, and an attractive pipeline market potential, I would not fault IPIX management (with Aspire) in considering a pharma buyout at 5-6 (yes, that low folks) that recognizes the additional R&D and risk required prior to a revenue stream. Principals become wealthy and it would make me - and most longs - very pleased. But it would virtually cut-out investors from the full market potential that may easily exceed $1B+ (i.e. 10-15). Argue the numbers, which are always a guess, but the concept is the same - management would make out handily for their vision, hard work and risk-taking while investors see a handsome profit, but far from what some now consider their long term prospects with IPIX stock. Just sayin'.
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