Alan, a thought exercise, let me know if this seem
Post# of 72447
(Total Views: 416)
Posted On: 06/28/2017 2:04:39 AM
Alan, a thought exercise, let me know if this seems feasible: for the sake of simplicity, volume is 10 shares per day every day. If FINRA reports 50%, then 5 shares were possibly naked short for the day. The following day, the first 5 share buys go to covering that short, and the next 5 shares were naked shorts again and FINRA post another 50% day. Next day repeat, such that 50% every single day could be maintained forever and only half of a daily volume (5 shares total) was ever really short.
Now, because volume is never a consistent 10 shares every single day, the short percentage varies. However, naked shorts, or MM wash trades, etc. could be covered and re-placed every day without ever violating the 3 day rule or ever growing a substantial naked short position. All resulting in a long-term average being 50% to break even assuming the float is consistent. For example, three 60% 100k volume days could be recovered with one 40% 300k volume day to maintain a consistent short position. Perhaps a reason the average is below 50% in IPIX's case is because the float is decreasing as investors accumulate.
Anyways, given the above thoughts (which may be totally bogus), one could begin to track a daily volume and percentage, perform some regression analysis, and perhaps determine if a total active short position was waxing or waning? Info used to know when to buy and sell a manipulated security.
It's late, math is starting to hurt, haha, goodnight
Now, because volume is never a consistent 10 shares every single day, the short percentage varies. However, naked shorts, or MM wash trades, etc. could be covered and re-placed every day without ever violating the 3 day rule or ever growing a substantial naked short position. All resulting in a long-term average being 50% to break even assuming the float is consistent. For example, three 60% 100k volume days could be recovered with one 40% 300k volume day to maintain a consistent short position. Perhaps a reason the average is below 50% in IPIX's case is because the float is decreasing as investors accumulate.
Anyways, given the above thoughts (which may be totally bogus), one could begin to track a daily volume and percentage, perform some regression analysis, and perhaps determine if a total active short position was waxing or waning? Info used to know when to buy and sell a manipulated security.
It's late, math is starting to hurt, haha, goodnight
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