Biotechmave post: BioTechMaven Sunday, 05/21

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BioTechMaven Sunday, 05/21/17 09:01:11 AM
Re: A deleted message
Post # of 182745

I certainly don't except a 20x at their topline presentation in July, however, once a pharma completes a trial, again I'll repeat, once a trial is completed, especially a phase 2 trial poc or not, its typically a body of evidence strong enough for big pharma's to partner. And that's where you can get a huge increase, on the partnership. You are correct as are others that it would be unlikely that cohort C in the IBD trial is much of a variant from cohorts A and B, but it's importance can't be overlooked: with dose escalation through three successive cohort increases each tick up continues to be safe and effective. Brilacidin is a safe drug, as proven now in IBD cohorts A and B, the OM trial, and the ABSSSI trial. Not only is CTIX compiling a body of evidence that signals a true platform drug effective in seemingly endless indications, what they are also signaling (and rather loudly in their PR's) is even though the IBD trial is now a 17 patient pool, they have gathered every bit of evidence that every big pharma and international governing body would ever like to see with particular attention being cast on endoscopic assessment, which mind you, plenty of big billions deals have been done where endoscopic assessment hasn't been prioritized only to the later detriment of the drugs. A pharma could partner at any moment imo on Brilacidin.

Lastly, on the topic of overnight magic lottery style returns that is always a theme in small biotech, the Prurisol trial's interim results have that severe potential to post a number that could easily take the share price from say $2/share to $25 a share overnight. Think I'm full of malarkey? Not so fast. Prurisol already laid down safety and efficacy in small phase 2 trial in the 200mg arm. The 2B ups the ante and seeks to answer the question was the 200mg arm a total fluke or was that a real result with those 16 patients. CTIX has taken the challenge and now ups the disease to 300mg and 400mg in a statistically powered trial (what that means is: whatever numbers they post, only the uninformed would argue with their efficacy and relevance). The exciting part is in the 200mg arm the drug bettered Otezla. Now, what happens when the dose is increased by 50 or 100 percent...? The boundaries for safety in the drugs derivative are something like 800-1000mg, so safety is not an issue. So, does Prurisol go ahead and post a number that not only betters the $2/B oral Otezla but also betters some of the leading biologics on the market earning billions per year at high patient costs?

That's the great fun and unknown in CTIX this summer.

According to interim results posted for Brilacidin IBD and OM already has a bullseye all over it screaming it works and it's safe (Breakthrough Designation) as some have pointed out may be next. On the Breakthrough point for OM, that would be a significant share price catalyst alone that could add $100-200M in valuation overnight. And now Prurisol is positioned to potentially forever chance the psoriasis landscape.

I have a fun time asking myself: how much is Prurisol worth to Big Pharma (those either with or with a psoriasis drug) if Prurisol as an oral posts an absurdly high number, say 50-60% PASI 75.

My gut is if they posted that range on interim results, the stock WOULD open at $20-plus per share, and CTIX would find itself in a fever pitched auction scenario from the big guns in pharma wanting to own the drug outright.

The exciting thing: we are within 2-4 months (3Q2017) of knowing on Prurisol, 6 weeks from topline off IBD and OM, and things like Breakthrough designations, partnerships, or any other driver.

I suspect that we continue the slow and steady reversal this week and through June to much higher ground.

I've written my monthly length allotment in one coffee sitting!

Good luck to all, whichever side of the fence you sit on. What is clear is things are going to get hot once again!

Sam

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