Great post from faraifarai on other board.
faraifarai
Wednesday, 05/10/17 11:48:09 AM
Re: frrol post# 181453
Post # of 181480
The correlation between the share price and the progression of the pipeline is perhaps the most disjointed I have ever seen in a stock I've been invested in. This is made even more clear when management is overtly advertising in press releases, including today's, a grand reveal of topline data at a major conference. I'm talking about their IBD Phase 2 trial and at the World Congress in Boston July 10-13. Given the company has already posted interim results for this trial, (and they are actually exceptional and they are touting endoscopic evidence as further proof--which is a piece of evidence that many drugs at phase 2 in IBD have not showed and have gone on to deals in the billions), makes me as confident as i have ever been in Brilacidin for IBD. Now, Brilacidin for OM has posted what I don't think a single soul can argue as the most impressive oral mucositis results as a preventative ever posted by a company in the history of drug development. And, actually, even though that sounds like an overstatement--it's not. And now they post 70 percent enrollment in a powered Phase 2b study for an Oral in psoriasis where in the Phase 2a trial in the 200mg arm it bettered Otezla (set to make over $2B in 2017 alone--and no other approved orals on the market, orals as favored by doctors over biologics, and no other orals in development that look promising. And this Prurisol trial is going to read out interim data in 3Q17--which is 3 months away. If Prurisol betters Otezla's 33% at Pasi 75, (which it did and then some in the 2a 200mg arm) i'd encourage a poster to tell me why with a 189 patient 2b powered trial that the drug wouldn't instantly be worth in the billions. Again, the billions isn't exaggeration, otezla is earning $2B in 2017 alone with projections up to $5B in a few years per year. Kevetrin, the slow turtle but in a 2a and with an oral showing convenience and activity. There's tremendous drug and indication diversity here, there are active mid-phase trials in huge market indications that big pharma swarms over all the time. If i had to guess topline data is going to drive things and the fun seems like it starts in earnest, though lead up to topline always starts to get fun too.
bottomline: wtf--share price should be climbing in anticipation to 4 mid-phase trials delivering topline results in 2017. my guess is we get a reversal soon--i don't know when, but this puppy is going to swing around north as this company has far too much good stuff happening and happening all at once. all my other biotechs i'm invested in are one drug and waiting on one drug results---i don't think people quite understand that we are waiting on 4 results in the coming months with 3 drugs. and if you look at all the recently posted topline and interim results from all the trials in the lead-up---there hasn't been a hint of bad or negative science--it's actually been so good (better than Otezla, etc) that people may be in disbelief or who knows what.
wish i bought at .65? damn f'in straight!
will i be happy when the company is bought out for $3-8 billion and my average is only a buck higher or so than today--damn f'in straight!
let's go CTIX--you are 30 days or so until the topline fun starts...!
faraifarai
Wednesday, 05/10/17 11:48:09 AM
Re: frrol post# 181453
Post # of 181480
The correlation between the share price and the progression of the pipeline is perhaps the most disjointed I have ever seen in a stock I've been invested in. This is made even more clear when management is overtly advertising in press releases, including today's, a grand reveal of topline data at a major conference. I'm talking about their IBD Phase 2 trial and at the World Congress in Boston July 10-13. Given the company has already posted interim results for this trial, (and they are actually exceptional and they are touting endoscopic evidence as further proof--which is a piece of evidence that many drugs at phase 2 in IBD have not showed and have gone on to deals in the billions), makes me as confident as i have ever been in Brilacidin for IBD. Now, Brilacidin for OM has posted what I don't think a single soul can argue as the most impressive oral mucositis results as a preventative ever posted by a company in the history of drug development. And, actually, even though that sounds like an overstatement--it's not. And now they post 70 percent enrollment in a powered Phase 2b study for an Oral in psoriasis where in the Phase 2a trial in the 200mg arm it bettered Otezla (set to make over $2B in 2017 alone--and no other approved orals on the market, orals as favored by doctors over biologics, and no other orals in development that look promising. And this Prurisol trial is going to read out interim data in 3Q17--which is 3 months away. If Prurisol betters Otezla's 33% at Pasi 75, (which it did and then some in the 2a 200mg arm) i'd encourage a poster to tell me why with a 189 patient 2b powered trial that the drug wouldn't instantly be worth in the billions. Again, the billions isn't exaggeration, otezla is earning $2B in 2017 alone with projections up to $5B in a few years per year. Kevetrin, the slow turtle but in a 2a and with an oral showing convenience and activity. There's tremendous drug and indication diversity here, there are active mid-phase trials in huge market indications that big pharma swarms over all the time. If i had to guess topline data is going to drive things and the fun seems like it starts in earnest, though lead up to topline always starts to get fun too.
bottomline: wtf--share price should be climbing in anticipation to 4 mid-phase trials delivering topline results in 2017. my guess is we get a reversal soon--i don't know when, but this puppy is going to swing around north as this company has far too much good stuff happening and happening all at once. all my other biotechs i'm invested in are one drug and waiting on one drug results---i don't think people quite understand that we are waiting on 4 results in the coming months with 3 drugs. and if you look at all the recently posted topline and interim results from all the trials in the lead-up---there hasn't been a hint of bad or negative science--it's actually been so good (better than Otezla, etc) that people may be in disbelief or who knows what.
wish i bought at .65? damn f'in straight!
will i be happy when the company is bought out for $3-8 billion and my average is only a buck higher or so than today--damn f'in straight!
let's go CTIX--you are 30 days or so until the topline fun starts...!
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